T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi martta 229,9 milyar lira a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde 24,37 milyar lira fazla vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son veri, fazladan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ki veri aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim 254,27 milyar lira.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u015fubatta g\u00f6r\u00fclen fazlan\u0131n ard\u0131ndan belirgin bir olumsuz s\u00fcrpriz. Fazladan derin a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve bu durum T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 \u00fczerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda lira i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu bozulma nedeniyle, en do\u011frudan yakla\u015f\u0131m liran\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklemektir. Bu da USD\/TRY\u2019de uzun (dolar al\u0131p TL satmak) pozisyonlar\u0131 spot (an\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m), forward (ileri tarihli kurdan i\u015flem) veya call opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) \u00fczerinden cazip k\u0131lar. Mevcut veriler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun 2025 sonu itibar\u0131yla %42 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle korunma (hedge: kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) veya kur hareketine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alman\u0131n maliyeti y\u00fckselebilir. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalarda benzer beklenmedik mali veriler, oynakl\u0131kta sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (TCMB) zor bir konuma itiyor. TCMB, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi %45 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede tutuyor; ancak artan kamu harcamas\u0131 bu \u00e7abay\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Piyasa, TCMB\u2019nin faizleri beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha fazla fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleriyle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri faiz gibi bir g\u00f6stergeden t\u00fcreyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemler g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmeli. Odak, faizin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlara kayabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin sabit faiz \u00f6deyen faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (swap: iki taraf\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015f etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131labilir. 2024\u2019te benzer bir durumda, zay\u0131f mali verilerin ard\u0131ndan piyasa faiz indirimi beklentilerini h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
B\u00fct\u00e7ede martta 229,9 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131kla \u015fubat fazlas\u0131ndan 254,3 milyar TL\u2019lik sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: TL\u2019ye bask\u0131 artabilir, USD\/TRY longlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckselir; TCMB faizi daha uzun y\u00fcksek tutabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44665\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}