Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm haberleri, ABD dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flama ve EUR\/USD kurunda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fi netle\u015fene kadar d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda hareketin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k) kalmas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin daha belirgin \u015fekilde azalmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n olas\u0131 bir petrol fiyat \u015fokunun (petrol fiyat\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015f) enflasyona etkisini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 e\u015fik olarak g\u00f6sterildi. Bu senaryo; merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 tepkileri ve faiz farklar\u0131ndaki (iki para biriminin faiz getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark) de\u011fi\u015fimlerle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fimler kur hareketini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, gerilimin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00fcven olu\u015fursa dolar\u0131n yeniden bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Bu arada, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklentileriyle EUR\/USD\u2019nin kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da diplomatik s\u00fcrece i\u015faret eden son ba\u015fl\u0131klar dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,0950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve gerilimin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair her sinyale olumlu tepki verdi\u011fini izliyoruz. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 106 \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden 104,5 civar\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r modunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc netle\u015fene kadar tepkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 2025 sonlar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselirken VIX endeksi (piyasa oynakl\u0131k endeksi, \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; diplomatik kanallar a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131nca 18 civar\u0131na geriledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n umutlu oldu\u011funu ancak ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli durdu\u011funu yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket i\u00e7in as\u0131l tetikleyici, gerilimin do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi olur. Ancak o zaman 2025 sonlar\u0131ndaki petrol fiyat \u015fokunun enflasyona etkisini ve bunun merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne anlama geldi\u011fini sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (enflasyonu kontrol i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) koruyor; ancak jeopolitik riskin kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak azalmas\u0131, oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden faiz indirimi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm ufukta g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde dolar\u0131n yeniden bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, EUR\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu alman\u0131n (\u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir se\u00e7enek olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00fcr\u00fcnler, gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle yukar\u0131 hareketten yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, tansiyonun yeniden y\u00fckselmesi halinde zarar\u0131 belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm umutlar\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli bir seyir izlemesi olas\u0131. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zirvelerden geriledi; bu da opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kesin bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeden bu yava\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da diplomasi sinyalleri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,0950\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasalar bekle-g\u00f6r modunda, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Kal\u0131c\u0131 gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc petrol-enflasyon ve faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyip kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44661\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}