GBP\/JPY, sekizinci g\u00fcn de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 215,00 seviyesinin ortalar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Temmuz 2008\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cswing high\u201da (\u00f6nemli ara zirve) yak\u0131n seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k endi\u015feleri, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler beklense de devam etti. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu petrol ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, yeni \u201crisk\u201dlere (belirsizlik kaynakl\u0131 fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 yeni\u2019yi hassas b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu riskler, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 ablukaya almas\u0131 ve bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131na destek, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f benimseyece\u011fi beklentilerinden geldi. Piyasalar bu y\u0131l en az bir, hatta iki \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (politika faizinin y\u00fckseltilmesi) y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatl\u0131yordu; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f de \u201cenflasyon beklentileri\u201dni (gelecekte beklenen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan unsurlar aras\u0131nda, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d endi\u015feleri yer ald\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesine (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve d\u00fczeltme ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) yakla\u015f\u0131yordu; bu da yatay seyir veya geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimaline i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019nin konu\u015fmas\u0131na, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verileri \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki analize d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, paritenin 220,00 \u00fczerindeki ralli zemininin o d\u00f6nemde olu\u015ftu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, o y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Jeopolitik riskler sonra azald\u0131 ancak bunun ekonomik etkisi Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn bu s\u00fcrecin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 daha net: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verisi %0,4 daralmaya i\u015faret etti. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetlerini temel nedenlerden biri olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Brent petrol 2025 zirvelerinden gerilese de 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini olumsuz etkiliyor. Bu durum, aktif bir jeopolitik kriz olmasa bile yeni i\u00e7in temel bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda BoE, 2025\u2019teki \u015fahin beklentileri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve o y\u0131l iki kez faiz art\u0131rarak politika faizini %6,0\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ancak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun ana \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131; bu oran %2 hedefin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. Bu da BoE\u2019yi zor bir noktada b\u0131rak\u0131yor: Ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yava\u015flayan ekonomiyi daha fazla zorlayabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in Sterlin\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi BoJ sonunda faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda \u201cnegatif faiz\u201d politikas\u0131ndan (bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131nda tuttu\u011fu paraya faiz \u00f6demesi) resmen \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; mevcut politika faizi %0,25 seviyesinde. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde iki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cpiyasa m\u00fcdahalesi\u201d de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu ad\u0131mlar GBP\/JPY\u2019de sert ama ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. M\u00fcdahale riski, \u00f6zellikle 220,00 \u00fczeri seviyelerde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n devreye girebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle, pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
215,00\u2019te sekiz g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralli: GBP\/JPY, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 riskler ve \u015fahin BoE beklentileriyle 2008 zirvesine g\u00f6z k\u0131rp\u0131yor. Ancak BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, m\u00fcdahale ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sinyalleri y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44659\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}