ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tehditleri, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131na destek veriyor. Rapora g\u00f6re bu durum, k\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131nda arz-talep dengesini daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve stoklar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 erimesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7izilen senaryoda Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n iki rotaya ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir rotada \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 veya \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d benzeri ek maliyetler uygulamas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; di\u011fer rota ise deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131yla ge\u00e7ilemez hale getirilebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n durmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel arzdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5\u20132,0 milyon varil (mb\/g: g\u00fcnde milyon varil) eksilme anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yeniden y\u00f6nlendirme (tankerlerin alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlara kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131), Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR: devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu petrol stoklar\u0131ndan piyasaya sat\u0131\u015f), talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (y\u00fcksek fiyatlar ve ekonomik yava\u015flama nedeniyle t\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131) ve di\u011fer dengeleyici unsurlar hesaba kat\u0131lsa bile, stok erimesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Nisan\u2019da 7,9 mb\/g, May\u0131s\u2019ta 6,1 mb\/g seviyesine y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d (arz-talep dengesinin yeniden daha sakin ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir hale gelmesi) tarihi art\u0131k Nisan sonundan May\u0131s ortas\u0131na \u00f6teleniyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n 190 milyon varilden fazla azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131 toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,9 milyar varil olarak veriliyor. Bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,2 milyar varili karada (depolarda), yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,7 milyar varili ise denizde (tankerlerde) bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Son piyasa hareketleri de bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor: Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri tarihli teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) son bir ayda %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: piyasadaki opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) da artt\u0131; CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 2025 sonundaki gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere geldi. Bu tablo, piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak arz \u015fokunun fiyatlarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir \u00f6rnek 2019\u2019daki Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yd\u0131; bu olay k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ama sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan her g\u00fcn d\u00fcnya toplam petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, uzun s\u00fcrecek bir aksama \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilir. Mevcut ko\u015fullar, \u00f6nceki olaylara k\u0131yasla daha a\u011f\u0131r ve daha uzun s\u00fcrebilecek bir arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Brent\u2019i ayakta tutuyor: ABD ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran tehdidi arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p stoklar\u0131 h\u0131zla eritiyor. \u0130ran ihracat\u0131 kesilirse 1,5\u20132 mb\/g kay\u0131p; volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131yor, normalle\u015fme \u00f6teleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}