NZD\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,5900 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta hareket etti. Parite, son iki g\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldikten sonra Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131kla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak, mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden hafif toparland\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n BM b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi, Pazartesi ba\u015flayan ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n egemenli\u011fini (\u00fclkenin kendi kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alma hakk\u0131n\u0131) ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131 bir yap\u0131) misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi ihtimaline de odakland\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, Washington\u2019un \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcnya ile ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan daha geni\u015f bir anla\u015fma hedefledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu durum dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken NZD\/USD\u2019yi destekledi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verileri, \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) martta beklentiden daha az y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki (faizleri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki toparlanma, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talebi artan varl\u0131k) dolar\u0131na olan talebi azaltt\u0131. Bu da NZD\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, NZD\/USD\u2019nin 0,5900 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerine ra\u011fmen zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa, ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine dair iyimserlik ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik riskin (siyasi\/askeri geli\u015fmelerin piyasalara etkisi) dolar\u0131 destekleyen etkisi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da paritede hassas bir denge yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, o d\u00f6nemde enflasyon verileriyle desteklenmi\u015fti. Mart 2025 PPI verisi beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmi\u015f, bu da 2023 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe benzer bir tablo yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, Fed\u2019in sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131; ABD tahvil getirilerinde ge\u00e7ici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7arak Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131na (Kiwi) destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Ancak o d\u00f6nemde Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahin (daha az faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin s\u0131k s\u0131k erken olu\u015ftu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Fed, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l mart ve may\u0131sta faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n temkinli de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc para politikas\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likiditeyle ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmesi) h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn t\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00fcrprizlerin oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yol ve bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki jeopolitik belirsizlik, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) kritik bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler (\u00f6rne\u011fin straddle\/strangle: y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan oynakl\u0131\u011fa oynayan opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyona g\u00f6re daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilirdi.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da \u00f6nemli. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde RBNZ\u2019nin beklenenden daha sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin Nisan 2023\u2019te beklenmeyen 50 baz puanl\u0131k (baz puan: faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, NZD\/USD\u2019nin iki tarafl\u0131 bir hik\u00e2ye oldu\u011funu; Kiwi\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin sadece dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan de\u011fil, yerel politikadan da kaynaklanabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fik 0,5900: NZD\/USD yatayda, ayl\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n. Dolar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle toparlansa da zay\u0131flayan Fed faiz beklentisi, d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil getirileri ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 Kiwi\u2019yi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44648"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44648\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}