WTI \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcnde geriledi; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Olas\u0131 ikinci tur ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin bitimi yakla\u015f\u0131rken, arz (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) endi\u015feleri azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlar gev\u015fedi.<\/p>\n
New York Post\u2019a g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmeyi 20 y\u0131l durdurmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, Pakistan\u2019daki ilk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde \u201ckayda de\u011fer ilerleme\u201d oldu\u011funu, devam g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde yap\u0131labilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131na deniz ablukas\u0131 (gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fini fiilen engelleyerek sevkiyat\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlama) uygulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tahran\u2019\u0131n, bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2htan sevkiyatlar\u0131 (petrol g\u00f6nderimleri) ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bildiriliyor.<\/p>\n
API verileri (American Petroleum Institute\/ABD Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn haftal\u0131k stok tahminleri), 10 Nisan\u2019da biten haftada ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 6,1 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bir \u00f6nceki hafta 3,72 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
IEA (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131), k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l g\u00fcnde 1,5 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ajans; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 fiilen kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n (ge\u00e7i\u015fi ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksatmas\u0131), \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131 bozdu\u011funu; bunun da k\u00fcresel talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5\u2019ine denk geldi\u011fini ve daha \u00f6nceki arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Jeopolitik gerginli\u011fin azalmas\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi) mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana nedeni ve WTI\u2019\u0131 87,50 dolar civar\u0131na indiriyor. Piyasa, anla\u015fma ihtimalini daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye girebilece\u011fi (piyasaya yeniden petrol gelebilece\u011fi) beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor: K\u0131sa vadeli diplomasi umudu ile sert arz ger\u00e7e\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. IEA\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n g\u00fcnde 1,5 milyon varil d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmini, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc unsur (fiyat\u0131 destekleyen etken) ve g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Piyasadaki bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k, diplomasinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde fiyatlar\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde geri s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 varken, k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu strateji, ate\u015fkes bitmeden \u00f6nce m\u00fczakerelerden olumlu sinyal gelirse fiyatlar daha da d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, fiyatlar\u0131 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine itebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda bildirilen 6,1 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f, \u015fimdilik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ortalama haftal\u0131k stok de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde; ABD\u2019de arz\u0131n talebin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasaya \u201ctampon\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131) sa\u011flar ve sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc cesaretlendirir.<\/p>\n
Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: ters senaryoda zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) gerekir; benzer diplomatik giri\u015fimler ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131. Daha uzun vadeli \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m opsiyonu), \u00f6rne\u011fin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek vadeli, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik abluka s\u00fcrerse sert bir fiyat rallisine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Tarih, jeopolitik risk priminin (siyasi\/asker\u00ee risklerin fiyata ekledi\u011fi fazladan pay) piyasaya \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller petrol piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) y\u00fcksek tutuyor; bu, 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere benziyor. Bu ortamda, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzak) strangle veya straddle satmak (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla prim toplamak; fiyat belirli bantta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7) gibi stratejiler riskli ama \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa inananlar i\u00e7in getirili olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, m\u00fczakere man\u015fetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 87,50 dolara gerilerken ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi umudu bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Ancak API stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve IEA\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varillik arz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, sert s\u0131\u00e7rama riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44642\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}