G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 mart ay\u0131nda %2,7\u2019ye geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde %2,9 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin %2,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Son enflasyon verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,2\u2019de kalmas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, ekonomideki temel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tahminimizden daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, para politikas\u0131nda (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu verilerle birlikte Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoK) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in neredeyse hi\u00e7 gerek\u00e7esi kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Politika faizi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n belirledi\u011fi ana faiz oran\u0131) \u015fu an %3,50 seviyesinde. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, piyasada beklenen \u201cg\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d (faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde daha yumu\u015fak tutum) ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde rafa kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ise merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya ya da art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015f ihtimaline kaymal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, \u00f6zellikle faiz e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131nda (k\u0131sa vadeli tahvillerde) daha y\u00fcksek faizlere (getirilere) haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelir. 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k Kore Devlet Tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: gelecekte belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d almak (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frudan yans\u0131t\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa bu y\u0131l kalan faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131karmak zorunda kal\u0131r. Haber sonras\u0131 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 5 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) artarak %3,45\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Kore Wonu i\u00e7in de destekleyici. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ve faiz indiremeyen bir merkez bankas\u0131, para birimini daha cazip k\u0131lar. Ayr\u0131ca mart ay\u0131na ait son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi 4,9 milyar dolarl\u0131k fazla g\u00f6sterdi. Bu nedenle, ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Won\u2019da \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (long: de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. USD\/KRW paritesinde (dolar\/won kuru) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1320 seviyesinin hedef olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle KOSPI 200 endeksinde tablo daha belirsiz ve temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m gerektiriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 destekler; ancak daha y\u00fcksek faiz riski de\u011ferlemeleri (hisse fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kazan\u00e7lara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131\/ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) bask\u0131layabilir. 2025\u2019te faiz endi\u015felerinin piyasaya vurdu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz oynakl\u0131\u011fa benzer bir risk var. Endekste 2.800 seviyesine yak\u0131n \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki endeks seviyesine g\u00f6re k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltma i\u015flemi) amac\u0131yla daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz sert veri: G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de i\u015fsizlik martta %2,7\u2019ye indi (\u00f6nceki %2,9). \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %3,2. BoK\u2019un faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131yor; k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler yukar\u0131, KRW destekli, KOSPI temkinli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44632\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}