AUD\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,38 y\u00fckseldi ve 0,7150\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ancak 0,7150 seviyesinden gelen sert sat\u0131\u015fla geri \u00e7ekilerek 0,7120 civar\u0131na indi. Parite, nisan ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 0,6990 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden toparland\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen 0,7150\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flayamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da Westpac T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) nisanda %12,5 geriledi. \u00c7in\u2019de mart ay\u0131 ithalat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %27,8 artt\u0131 (piyasa beklentisi %11,1\u2019di). \u0130hracat ise %2,5 y\u00fckseldi (beklenti %8,3).<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00f6nemli veriler aras\u0131nda per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya istihdam raporu (piyasa beklentisi +20 bin) ve \u00c7in\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) yer al\u0131yor. Bu verilerin, k\u0131sa vadede Avustralya dolar\u0131 (AUD) \u00fczerinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de mart \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcretici seviyesindeki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artt\u0131 (beklenti %1,2). \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %0,1 y\u00fckseldi. Man\u015fet \u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,0 ile \u015eubat 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fta \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilimin etkisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte AUD\/USD 0,7126 seviyesindeydi; g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 0,7093 oldu. Stokastik RSI (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 25,35 seviyesinde. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte EMA\u2019lar (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: fiyat\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6neme daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek hesaplar) 50 g\u00fcnde 0,6981 ve 200 g\u00fcnde 0,6761 seviyesinde bulunuyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI ise 81,10 ile \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AUD\/USD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin 0,7150 civar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde y\u00fckseli\u015f; zay\u0131f gelen ABD \u00dcFE verisi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair beklentilerle beslenmi\u015f, bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 0,7150 b\u00f6lgesinde sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girmesi, mevcut i\u015flem ortam\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir referans noktas\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te dikkat \u00e7ekilen Avustralya t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni sorunlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Hanehalk\u0131, RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) sonraki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha belirgin hissediyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) %3,9 geldi; bu oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. S\u0131k\u0131 politika (y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in Avustralya dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi kritik ancak \u201ckarma\u201d bir etki yarat\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat verileri talebin canl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, son veriler \u00c7in\u2019in resm\u00ee Mart 2026 \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 50,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri sekt\u00f6rde geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret eder) hafif bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor; bu durum emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bu tablo, AUD\/USD\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131c\u0131 bulabilece\u011fine dair temel bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de\u011fi\u015fti. Mart 2025\u2019te \u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 o d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi ise Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019si %3,1 seviyesinde; enflasyonun kolay d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) temkinli ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131na daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken geri \u00e7ekilme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d sinyali, rallilerin yorulabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle AUD\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken riski \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerden yeniden sert sat\u0131\u015f gelmesi riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fte kazan\u00e7 hedefler) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azalt\u0131r ve paritede \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131r; mevcut destekleyici veriler ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131na uygun bir profil sunar. Mevcut uzun pozisyonlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 ise, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 0,7010 gibi \u00f6nemli desteklerin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, ani bir ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7150 direncinden sert d\u00f6nerek 0,7120\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. Avustralya g\u00fcveni zay\u0131f, ABD enflasyonu dolar lehine. Per\u015fembe istihdam ve \u00c7in GSYH\u2019si oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44629\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}