G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %18,4 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %1,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %1,2\u2019den %18,4\u2019e sert s\u0131\u00e7rama, g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir enflasyon sinyali. Bu, G\u00fcney Kore ekonomisini **maliyet kaynakl\u0131 bir \u015fokun** (\u015firketlerin girdi maliyetleri y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131n artmas\u0131) vurdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalar\u0131n Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank of Korea) daha agresif bir tutum almas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor; **enflasyonu frenlemek** i\u00e7in ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde **faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131** (politika faizinin y\u00fckseltilmesi) neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale getiriyor. Son **t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi** (T\u00dcFE: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %3,7 ile zaten y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve %2 hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. Bu nedenle Bank of Korea\u2019n\u0131n daha kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 beklenir. Bankan\u0131n **ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesinde** (gelecekteki faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair verdi\u011fi sinyaller) daha **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir tona ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Kore **devlet tahvili** vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (KTB vadeli kontratlar\u0131: tahvil fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yap\u0131lan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Piyasa enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sindirdik\u00e7e daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi artabilir; bu da **tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131** \u00e7eker (faizler y\u00fckselince mevcut tahvillerin fiyat\u0131 genelde d\u00fc\u015fer). 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmelere ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda ise Kore Won\u2019unda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ihtimali \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon normalde olumsuz kabul edilse de, sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali Won\u2019u **ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi** yapanlar i\u00e7in (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak getiri arama stratejisi) daha cazip hale getirebilir. **USD\/KRW** kurunun mevcut 1345 seviyesinden 1300\u2019e do\u011fru gev\u015femesi daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo olumsuz: ithalat maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, \u00f6zellikle \u00fcreticilerde **k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131** (sat\u0131\u015f gelirinden maliyetler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra kalan oran) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. **KOSPI 200** endeksinde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131lan ara\u00e7) almak, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem. Marj bask\u0131s\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin birle\u015fimi, hisseler i\u00e7in zorlu bir zemin olu\u015fturur.<\/p>\n
Bu ithalat fiyat \u015fokunun ana kayna\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. **WTI ham petrol\u00fc** (ABD g\u00f6sterge petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) son haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 etkenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede etkisini yitirmesi beklenmedi\u011finden, enflasyon e\u011filimine ivme kazand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kore\u2019de ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %18,4 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: maliyet \u015foku alarm\u0131! BoK\u2019ta \u015fahinle\u015fme ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlanabilir; tahviller bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, USD\/KRW 1300\u2019e gev\u015feyebilir; hisselerde marj riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44625\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}