Yuan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. \u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 tankerler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7erken USD\/CNY (dolar\/yuan kuru) \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez 6,80 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Yuan\u2019\u0131n, b\u00f6lgede \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) rol\u00fc \u00fcstlendi\u011fi belirtildi. Karada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren hisseler ve tahviller de \u201csavunmac\u0131\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nan) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi.<\/p>\n
CSI 300 (\u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket hisseleri endeksi) ile Bloomberg China Treasury Total Return Index\u2019in (\u00c7in Hazine tahvillerinin kupon\/faiz dahil toplam getirisini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 90 g\u00fcnl\u00fck korelasyonu (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket etme derecesi) mart ortas\u0131nda pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u0130ki piyasan\u0131n birlikte hareket etti\u011fi ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde Bat\u0131l\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerine g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in kredi verileri, toplam kredi stokunun y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %7,9\u2019a yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Kas\u0131m 2024\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00c7in Devlet Tahvili faizi %1,79\u2019un alt\u0131na indi; bunun 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama seviyesi, trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in devlet tahvillerine ek talep, 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) ve faaliyet verilerinin zay\u0131f gelme riskiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. \u0130\u00e7eri\u011fin haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131na bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131 verdi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r\u00fcn kontrol etti\u011fi not edildi.<\/p>\n
Yuan\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. USD\/CNY \u015fu anda 6,8150 seviyesinde ve 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00fczeyinde. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, Yuan\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede g\u00fcvenli liman olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan gerilim Brent petrol\u00fc (k\u00fcresel petrol g\u00f6stergesi fiyat) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine iterken, \u00c7in\u2019in enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 ve do\u011frudan etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi sermaye giri\u015fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu savunmac\u0131 duru\u015f sadece d\u00f6vizde de\u011fil. Hem karada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren hisseler hem de devlet tahvilleri diren\u00e7li. CSI 300 bu \u00e7eyrekte %1,5 y\u00fckselirken, S&P 500 gibi k\u00fcresel endeksler ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 geriledi. Bu fark, \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman ama\u00e7l\u0131 para giri\u015fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u00e7eken bir ba\u015fka geli\u015fme, ge\u00e7en ay ba\u015flayan CSI 300 ile \u00c7in devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki pozitif korelasyon. Normalde biri y\u00fckselirken di\u011feri d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimindedir; bu kez birlikte y\u00fckselmeleri, \u00c7in i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cg\u00fcvene ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskten korunmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme) dalgas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 birlikte \u201ckorunma\u201d (riski dengelemek i\u00e7in pozisyon alma) amac\u0131yla ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7 dinamikler zay\u0131f. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan kredi verisi yava\u015flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frulad\u0131. Toplam kredi stokundaki art\u0131\u015f %7,9\u2019a indi; bu zay\u0131f seyir Kas\u0131m 2024\u2019te de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi ile i\u00e7eride kredinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, oynakl\u0131k (fiyattaki dalgalanma) \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisinde; beklenti %4,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Veri zay\u0131f gelirse, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %1,79\u2019un alt\u0131ndaki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi daha da d\u00fc\u015febilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman talebi artar. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamazsa Yuan\u2019da ek de\u011ferlenme ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi s\u00fcrerken Yuan \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: USD\/CNY 6,80\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in hisse ve tahvilleri birlikte y\u00fckseliyor. Kredide yava\u015flama, zay\u0131f GSYH riskiyle tahvil faizini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44619\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}