Arjantin\u2019de t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE), martta ayl\u0131k bazda %3,4 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, %3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Mart verisi, beklentiyi 0,4 puan a\u015ft\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7, Arjantin\u2019de enflasyonun (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) seyrine ili\u015fkin son g\u00f6stergelere yeni bir halka ekledi.<\/p>\n
Martta %3,4\u2019l\u00fck beklenti \u00fczeri enflasyon, piyasalar i\u00e7in belirgin bir s\u00fcrpriz. Bu durum, Arjantin Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BCRA) agresif faiz indirimlerine (politika faizini h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme s\u00fcreci) devam edebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki alg\u0131y\u0131 zorluyor. BCRA\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6sterge faizi, daha ge\u00e7en ay %45\u2019e \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Art\u0131k ikinci \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131n\u0131n) izleyece\u011fi yol daha fazla sorgulanacak.<\/p>\n
Peso \u00fczerinde hemen bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Peso, paralel piyasada (resm\u00ee kurun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fan alternatif kur) dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 1.250 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131yd\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda pesonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (kur riskini azaltmak) ya da bu zay\u0131flamaya oynayabilmek i\u00e7in uzla\u015fmal\u0131 vadeli d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri (NDF: teslimat yap\u0131lmadan, vade sonunda fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n nakit \u00f6dendi\u011fi vadeli kur s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyri (kolay gerilememesi) nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1.300 \u00fczerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, temmuza kadar BCRA\u2019dan en az 400 baz puan (bp: faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim birimi; 400 bp = 4 puan) ek indirim fiyatl\u0131yordu. \u015eimdi \u201cduraklama\u201d senaryosuna haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131nda (iki taraf\u0131n belirli bir d\u00f6nem boyunca faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6deyen tarafta pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu, de\u011fi\u015fken faizin (piyasa faizine g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenen faiz) beklenildi\u011fi kadar d\u00fc\u015fmemesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu veri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) almak i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Merval endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ve \u00f6nemli ADR\u2019lerde (ABD\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren, yabanc\u0131 hisseyi temsil eden depo sertifikas\u0131) z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) son d\u00f6nemdeki sakinli\u011fe bak\u0131larak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet ve merkez bankas\u0131 tepkileriyle beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, uzun straddle gibi yap\u0131lar (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan strateji) de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon alarm\u0131: Arjantin T\u00dcFE martta %3,4 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. BCRA\u2019n\u0131n agresif faiz indirimleri sorgulan\u0131yor; peso bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. NDF, faiz swap\u0131 ve long straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}