Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerginli\u011fin artmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle USD\/KRW y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 (y\u00fcksek beta: piyasa dalgalan\u0131nca daha sert hareket eden) bir para birimi olan ve net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (t\u00fcketti\u011finden fazla petrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan alan) G\u00fcney Kore wonu \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOK) yetkilileri, won\u2019daki son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ve Kore hisselerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 portf\u00f6y ayarlamas\u0131na (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yeniden dengelemesine) ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yetkililer, bunu ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonundaki d\u00f6nemle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde won\u2019daki zay\u0131fl\u0131k daha \u00e7ok yurti\u00e7i unsurlarla; yerle\u015fiklerin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klara ili\u015fkin belirsizlikle ili\u015fkilendiriliyordu. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut tahminlere k\u0131yasla enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (fiyatlar\u0131n beklenenden fazla artmas\u0131) tarafta, b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/ekonomi risklerinin ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ekonominin beklenenden zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131) tarafta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 mesajlar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken temkinli duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eok ge\u00e7ici olursa, BOK\u2019un politika faizinde de\u011fi\u015fiklikten ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fi; ancak \u015fok kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelirse politika ad\u0131m\u0131 gelebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/KRW en son 1488 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi (bearish momentum: k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n bask\u0131) s\u00fcrerken, RSI\u2019\u0131n (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0\u2013100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Paritenin 1470\u20131500 band\u0131nda iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi bekleniyor. Destek seviyeleri 1475 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131) ve 1469 (100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) olarak izleniyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri ise 1492 (Fibonacci %38,2 d\u00fczeltme: \u00f6nceki hareketin belirli oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplanan teknik seviye) ve 1500 (21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/KRW, artan Ortado\u011fu gerginli\u011fi ve bunun tetikledi\u011fi petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 bir kur nedeniyle won \u00fczerinde do\u011fal olarak bask\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Mevcut kur hareketinin ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri bu d\u0131\u015f etkenler.<\/p>\n
Bu ay Haziran vadeli Brent petrol kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n (vadeli i\u015flem: ileri bir tarihte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 112 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ekonomiyi do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Bu tablo, enflasyon risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor; \u00f6zellikle Mart verilerinde t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 artmas\u0131 sonras\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ilk \u00e7eyrekte KOSPI endeksindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan portf\u00f6y ayarlamas\u0131 vurgusu da tutarl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 2025\u2019in sonundaki tabloya g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde won\u2019daki zay\u0131fl\u0131k daha \u00e7ok yerle\u015fiklerin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varl\u0131klara ili\u015fkin belirsizlik gibi i\u00e7 fakt\u00f6rlerden besleniyordu. Bug\u00fcn ise hik\u00e2ye b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u00fcresel jeopolitik riskler ve emtia (ham madde) fiyatlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n
Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine gitmek yerine, mevcut \u015fokun ge\u00e7ici olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemeyi tercih etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ba\u015fkan Rhee, politika tepkisinin ancak d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi durumunda g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fini netle\u015ftirdi. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmemesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritenin 1470\u20131500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ortam, yatay seyre dayal\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in uygun kabul ediliyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak (out-of-the-money: k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131. Mevcut dengeler nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar, parite band i\u00e7inde hareket ederken teknik seviyeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemeli. USD\/KRW 1500 civar\u0131ndaki dirence yakla\u015f\u0131rken sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma veya k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) kurma etkili olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 1470\u20131475 destek b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131m, al\u0131m opsiyonu i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafiklerde momentumun won aleyhine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olumsuz \u015fartlardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu gerilimi ve petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 USD\/KRW\u2019yi 1488\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 won bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. BOK temkinli: \u015fok ge\u00e7iciyse faiz yok, kal\u0131c\u0131ysa ad\u0131m. Bant 1470\u20131500; destek 1475\/1469, diren\u00e7 1492\/1500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}