ABD, 52 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu ihalesi d\u00fczenledi. <\/p>\n
\u0130halede en y\u00fcksek faiz oran\u0131 %3,56\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki ihalede %3,485 idi.<\/p>\n
52 haftal\u0131k bonoda faizin y\u00fckselmesi, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1 y\u0131lda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerine verilen do\u011frudan bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, devlet borcunu (Hazine bonosunu) elde tutmak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri talep ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Mart 2026 enflasyon verileri de destekliyor: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE; t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerdeki ortalama fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,2\u2019de kald\u0131. Bu durum, faiz beklentilerinin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool (Fed\u2019in toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vadeli piyasa fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) art\u0131k Temmuz 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 g\u00f6steriyor; ge\u00e7en ay bu oran %10\u2019du. Bu e\u011filim, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimini) g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, daha y\u00fcksek faiz senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz: SOFR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini (vadeli i\u015flem; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sat\u0131yoruz. \u0130\u015flem, faizler piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce umdu\u011fu gibi d\u00fc\u015fmezse kazand\u0131r\u0131r. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon; belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) ayr\u0131ca Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu \u201ccall spread\u201d satmay\u0131 (call spread; iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call al\u0131p sat\u0131larak olu\u015fturulan strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getirilerin (faizlerin) y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na ya da daha da y\u00fckselece\u011fine oynama yoludur.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam genelde hisse piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in zorludur; \u00f6zellikle bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve teknoloji hisseleri i\u00e7in. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, erken faiz indirimi beklentileri benzer \u015fekilde bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca piyasan\u0131n sert geriledi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle Nasdaq 100 endeksi (NDX) \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019nin 52 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesinde faiz %3,56\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Piyasa kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d \u0131srar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Strateji: SOFR vadeli sat\u0131\u015f, tahvil call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; Nasdaq\u2019ta put ile korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44602"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44602\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}