G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 78,80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck art\u0131\u015f %4,16. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 72,60 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviye 79,32 dolar oldu.<\/p>\n
Hareketin arkas\u0131nda zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ve iyile\u015fen piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 vard\u0131. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen ABD enflasyon verileri de de\u011ferli metallere talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE, \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verilerine g\u00f6re Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretici enflasyonu %4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu oran %4,6 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,5 ile tahminlerin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faizleri daha fazla art\u0131rma) ihtimaline dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine do\u011fru geriledi. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi yapmayan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi) i\u00e7in destekleyici oldu.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de alg\u0131y\u0131 etkiledi. Haberlerde, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden m\u00fczakere ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi belirtildi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re diplomatik giri\u015fimler, \u00f6nceki gerilimler ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin kesilmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130slamabad\u2019da temaslar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in temas kurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ra\u011fmen diplomatik kanallar\u0131n tamamen kapanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f dolar, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon verileri ve gerilimin azalmas\u0131 birlikte g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki toparlanmay\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 78 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, zay\u0131f dolar\u0131n besledi\u011fi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeye e\u015flik edilebilecek bir d\u00f6nem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken maksimum kayb\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) y\u00f6nelebilir. Fiyattaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, Mart \u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesine net bir tepki.<\/p>\n
Bu ralli, fiyatlar\u0131 2025\u2019teki emtia y\u00fckseli\u015finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 82 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Mevcut e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da \u00f6nceki zirveye yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gelebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in dikkatli olmak gerekir. Tarihsel olarak bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri \u00e7o\u011fu kez sert d\u00fczeltmeler izler.<\/p>\n
Son Commitment of Traders (COT, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyon da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor) verisi, hedge fonlar\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures, ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) net uzun (net-long, al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan fazla olmas\u0131) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 18 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da i\u015flemin kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) da y\u00fckseldi; bu, opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken piyasada belirgin bir fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kendisinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek stratejileri kullanmay\u0131 veya en az\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss, belirli seviyede pozisyonu otomatik kapatan emir) seviyeleri belirlemeyi gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
Temelde piyasa, Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan geri ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131na oynuyor; bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru. Buna ek olarak sanayi talebi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle AB\u2019nin g\u00fcne\u015f paneli \u00fcretimine y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son te\u015fvikler, y\u0131ll\u0131k 120 milyon onsun \u00fczerinde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcketen bir sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in talebi art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin sanayi al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte ralli yeniden sahnede: XAG\/USD %4,16 art\u0131\u015fla 78,80 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Zay\u0131f dolar ve beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00dcFE Fed bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Ancak kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlar, 82 dolar direncinde k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}