EUR\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 1,1800 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,37 artt\u0131. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flama ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) toparlanma vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bu hafta ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temas kurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu hava, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak dolara talebi azaltt\u0131 ve Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 son zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 2 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. Dolar, Mart ay\u0131 ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi sonras\u0131 da geriledi.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet \u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artt\u0131; %1,2 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti (\u00f6nceki veri %0,7\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi). Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE %4,0 oldu; %4,6 tahmininin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %3,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genel olarak y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, piyasalarda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) yakla\u015f\u0131k iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n olumsuz etkinin merkezinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve politikan\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimi\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck net y\u00f6nlendirme) bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
IMF, Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 2026 i\u00e7in %1,1 ve 2027 i\u00e7in %1,2\u2019ye \u00e7ekti (\u00f6nce %1,3 ve %1,4). ABD i\u00e7in ise 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %2,3 (\u00f6nce %2,4) ve 2027\u2019yi %2,1 (\u00f6nce %2,0) g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son fiyat hareketine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda EUR\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6nemli bir direncin (sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 1,1800\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviye ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Hareket, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklenti ve \u00fcretici enflasyonunda so\u011fuma i\u015faretleriyle zay\u0131flayan dolar taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. Bu, orta vadeli e\u011filimde (birka\u00e7 ay\u0131 kapsayan y\u00f6n) euro lehine bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f \u00dcFE verisi, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) para politikas\u0131nda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) verisi man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,5\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu, Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131 daha yava\u015f artarken t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor ve t\u00fcketici taraf\u0131ndaki bask\u0131lar s\u00fcrerse dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin iyimserlik dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini azalt\u0131yor, ancak bu hava k\u0131r\u0131lgan. 2025\u2019te gerilim y\u00fckseldi\u011finde petrol\u00fcn h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle mevcut e\u011filim euro lehine olsa da, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar) olas\u0131 ani bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedging: riski azaltma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda\u201d EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentileri ile ECB\u2019nin mesajlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015fuyor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ECB\u2019nin 2026 sonuna kadar en az iki kez 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Lagarde, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ve net y\u00f6n vermeyen bir \u00e7izgide. Bu tablo, gelecek Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verilerini kritik hale getiriyor: Veriler piyasadaki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen) fiyatlamay\u0131 do\u011frulayabilir ya da \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015feme yanl\u0131s\u0131) yeniden fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7arak eurodaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
IMF\u2019nin daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de euro i\u00e7in iyimserli\u011fi azalt\u0131yor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin 2026\u2019da %1,1\u2019e indirilmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha da yava\u015flarsa ECB\u2019nin piyasada fiyatlanan kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, mevcut olumlu momentuma (k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi) kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/dolar 1,18\u2019e dayand\u0131: DXY\u2019de sert zay\u0131flama ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destekliyor. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme beklentisi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltt\u0131. \u00dcFE zay\u0131f, Fed bekle-g\u00f6r. ECB\u2019ye iki art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. Lagarde temkinli, IMF b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyon yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44595"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44595\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}