Kanada Dolar\u0131, zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; ancak di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerinin gerisinde kald\u0131 ve \u00e7apraz kurlarda de\u011fer kaybetti. USD\/CAD\u2019nin (ABD Dolar\u0131\/Kanada Dolar\u0131 paritesi) 1,3527 seviyesinde \u201cdenge\u201dde (adil de\u011fer\/teorik denge seviyesi) oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor. Bu fark\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden \u00e7ok ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flama ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD i\u00e7in nisan ay\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc \u201cmevsimsellik\u201d (y\u0131l\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k tekrarlanan tarihsel fiyat e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 e\u011filimli) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Son siyasi geli\u015fmelerin kur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkisi oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde USD\/CAD, mart ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dip seviyeden gelen trend deste\u011finin (fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131da tutan e\u011filim \u00e7izgisi) alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n son 200 g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131; uzun vadeli e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) ve 1,38 civar\u0131ndaki %38,2 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesinin (Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilmesi: \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131n geri al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik seviye) alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, marttaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin %50 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesine (Fibonacci bazl\u0131 orta nokta) denk gelen 1,3745\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. K\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z ve g\u00fcc\u00fc) 1,36\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131na do\u011fru bir hareket riskine i\u015faret ediyor; 1,3690 seviyesi ise %61,8 geri \u00e7ekilme (Fibonacci\u2019de kritik kabul edilen seviye) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak bu, CAD\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden \u00e7ok genel bir ABD dolar\u0131 gerilemesine ba\u011fl\u0131. CAD\u2019in \u201cucuz\u201d kalm\u0131\u015f de\u011ferinin (piyasan\u0131n olmas\u0131 gerekenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlamas\u0131) yava\u015f d\u00fczeltmesinin, zay\u0131f \u201cgreenback\u201d (piyasa jargonunda ABD Dolar\u0131) ile s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu e\u011filim, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) bu yana izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in mevsimsel e\u011filimler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde olumlu; bu da USD\/CAD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in belirgin bir destekleyici unsur yarat\u0131yor. Son 15 y\u0131la bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD paritesi nisan ay\u0131nda zaman\u0131n %70\u2019inden fazlas\u0131nda ay\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kapatt\u0131. Bu tekrar eden desen, ay sonuna kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son teknik k\u0131r\u0131lmalar bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile 1,3800 civar\u0131ndaki %38,2 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesi \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin arkas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, vadesi nisan sonu veya may\u0131s ortas\u0131 olan USD\/CAD \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (parite belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine y\u00f6nelik) al\u0131nmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 1,3700\u2019e yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; hedef, bir sonraki \u00f6nemli destek seviyesine do\u011fru beklenen hareketten faydalanmak. Bu strateji, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlarken (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ekonomik temellerdeki ayr\u0131\u015fma ile de destekleniyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD enflasyonu beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelerek %2,9 oldu; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verebilece\u011fi beklentilerini (faizlerde \u201cduraklama\u201d) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Di\u011fer yandan WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131 (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) son bir ayda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da emtiaya duyarl\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131na (petrol gibi emtialardan etkilenen para birimi) destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d duru\u015fu (faizde ne art\u0131r\u0131ma ne indirime a\u00e7\u0131k, bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) da Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine\/gev\u015femeye daha yak\u0131n) bir \u00e7izgiye kayma ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat \u00e7eken tablo: CAD, zay\u0131flayan dolar sayesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lense de \u00e7aprazlarda geri. USD\/CAD teknik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlarla 1,37 alt\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor; nisan mevsimselli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor, put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44592\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}