Rabobank stratejistleri, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS) mevcut enerji \u015foku s\u0131ras\u0131nda politikay\u0131 **kur kanal\u0131yla** s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor. (Kur kanal\u0131: Faiz art\u0131rmak yerine **\u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek** ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma.) Bu ad\u0131m, Singapur\u2019un 1. \u00e7eyrekte GSYH\u2019sinin (Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) **negatif** gelmesine ra\u011fmen at\u0131ld\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun** (\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi var.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n hem Rusya hem de ABD ile temaslar\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131yorlar. Endonezya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prabowo Moskova\u2019da Vladimir Putin ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Endonezya Savunma Bakan\u0131 ise ABD ile savunma ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirmeyi kabul etti.<\/p>\n
Bu ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, ABD askeri u\u00e7aklar\u0131na **u\u00e7u\u015f ge\u00e7i\u015fi** izni sa\u011flayarak Pentagon\u2019a Orta Do\u011fu ve Asya\u2019ya yeni g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Stratejistler bu geli\u015fmeleri, Endonezya ve Singapur\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ve y\u00fck bo\u011faz noktas\u0131 olan Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendiriyor. (Bo\u011faz noktas\u0131\/chokepoint: Ticaretin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar ge\u00e7it; aksama olursa k\u00fcresel fiyatlar etkilenebilir.)<\/p>\n
Singapur\u2019un kilit su yollar\u0131nda yeni \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d uygulamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekliyorlar. Stratejistlere g\u00f6re Asya d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 (foreign exchange\/FX: d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m piyasas\u0131) politika kararlar\u0131na ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere tepki verebilir.<\/p>\n
Singapur merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha erken ve daha kararl\u0131 davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enerji maliyetleri artarken, ekonomi zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleri verse bile Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Son veriler, Singapur\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun Mart 2026\u2019da %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da **\u015fahin** duru\u015fu (hawkish: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n (SGD) bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, yak\u0131n vadede d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor. MAS bu \u00e7izgide kal\u0131rsa, daha **g\u00fcvercin** (dovish: b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha gev\u015fek politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 SGD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik **opsiyon** stratejileri (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. SGD bu y\u0131l bir para sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve e\u011filim s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile Rusya aras\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hassas denge izlenmeli. Bu diplomatik hamleler, k\u00fcresel ticaret i\u00e7in kritik Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te bo\u011fazdan 84 binden fazla gemi ge\u00e7ti; k\u00fcresel ticarete konu mallar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. B\u00f6lgedeki bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k bu nedenle b\u00fcy\u00fck risk.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesi, **volatilite** (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir aksama ya da sadece aksama alg\u0131s\u0131 bile petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve navlun maliyetlerini h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015foklar\u0131, bu t\u00fcr endi\u015felerle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bu da petrolde uzun vadeli **al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131** (call option: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131) riskten korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Singapur MAS, enerji \u015fokunda faizi de\u011fil kur kanal\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131p SGD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Malakka riski, Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n ABD-Rusya dengesiyle FX ve petrol volatilitesini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44590\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}