Romanya\u2019da mart enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9,3\u2019ten %9,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi ve piyasa beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve nisan ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 ile zirve yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Romanya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (NBR) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekya\u2019da, %1,4\u2019ten %1,9\u2019a y\u00fckselen ancak piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kalan \u00f6nc\u00fc verinin ard\u0131ndan mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin nihai enflasyon tahmini a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda %2,7 olan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ek Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CNB) bu y\u0131l para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor. EUR\/CZK 24,350\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi ve 24,250\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131; ancak mevcut jeopolitik belirsizlik ve piyasada iki CNB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi fiyatlan\u0131rken 24,250\u2019nin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
Macaristan\u2019da EUR\/HUF\u2019nin 355\u2013360 band\u0131nda dengelenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Romanya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan %9,9\u2019luk enflasyon, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bankalara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana faiz) 2026 boyunca %7,00 seviyesinde tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, 2024\u2019te m\u00fccadele edilen ve faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutan kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu, Forward Rate Agreement (FRA: ileri tarihli faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen, faiz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile Romanya faizlerinin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekya\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm istikrara i\u015faret ediyor. CNB\u2019nin, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu gibi, politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. EUR\/CZK\u2019nin bu \u00e7eyrekte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan 24,250 destek seviyesinin (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye) belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, koronada s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu ortam, oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131 (volatilite: kurun dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi; \u201csatmak\u201d ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dalgalanma beklentisiyle opsiyon primi toplamak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/CZK\u2019de strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte satma stratejisi) ve kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda beklenen band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na koymak gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Romanya\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz enflasyon %9,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %10+ g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc NBR\u2019nin faizi 2026\u2019ya kadar %7\u2019de tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekya\u2019da enflasyon \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131, EUR\/CZK\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; Macaristan\u2019da 355\u2013360 band\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}