ABD\u2019de g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE), martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artt\u0131. Bu oran, %0,6 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (firmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131) beklenenden daha yava\u015f y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Raporda marttaki %0,1 art\u0131\u015f, beklenen %0,6 art\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Beklentiden \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen \u00fcretici enflasyonu, tedarik zincirindeki (hammadde\u2013ara mal\u0131\u2013nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn hatt\u0131) fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin duru\u015funu\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7izgisi) yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e veriyor. Piyasan\u0131n daha erken ve daha sert faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kazand\u0131ran faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (faiz t\u00fcrevleri: faize dayal\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) i\u00e7in destekleyici. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR futures: gecelik ABD faizini izleyen ben\u00e7marka dayal\u0131 kontratlar) pozisyon art\u0131rmak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gecelik faiz beklerse bu kontratlar\u0131n de\u011feri y\u00fckselir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, A\u011fustos 2025\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanan JOLTS verisinde (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en istihdam anketi) yumu\u015fama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, bunun ard\u0131ndan bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan veri olumlu; kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini azalt\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in Nasdaq 100 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 endekslerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu haberle ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015fmesi olas\u0131. Bu da S&P 500\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha uzakta olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu spreadi satmak (out-of-the-money put spread: iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli prim toplama stratejisi) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri prim geliri i\u00e7in daha cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce de\u011fi\u015fimini destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta, bu rapor \u00f6ncesinde CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinden olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %30 civar\u0131nda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; zay\u0131flayan enflasyon verileri piyasalarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 (repricing: beklentilerin h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fmesiyle varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uyarlanmas\u0131) tetiklemi\u015f ve y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hisse rallisi getirmi\u015fti. Bu d\u00f6nem, Fed\u2019in \u201cg\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d (dovish pivot: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere y\u00f6nelme) \u00f6nceden \u00f6ng\u00f6rmenin kritik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu \u00dcFE verisi, benzer bir hareketin tetikleyicisi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz \u00dcFE \u015foku: ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE martta %0,1 artarak %0,6 beklentisini ezdi. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi sorgulan\u0131r, erken faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131r; Nasdaq\/S&P opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}