ABD\u2019de g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi (\u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE), martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 artt\u0131. Beklenti %4,2 idi.<\/p>\n
Veri beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE; \u00fcreticilerin (fabrika \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er ve g\u0131da ile enerji gibi fiyat\u0131 s\u0131k dalgalanan kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Beklentinin alt\u0131nda gelen %3,8\u2019lik \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli bir i\u015faret. Bu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cenflasyon yap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015f ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyon) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc nedeniyle bekle-g\u00f6r tutumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle olu\u015fan algiyi zorlar. \u00dcFE genelde t\u00fcketici enflasyonundan \u00f6nce sinyal verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi) de daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u201c\u015fahin duru\u015f\u201dtan (faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na veya y\u00fcksek faizleri korumaya e\u011filimli tutum) uzakla\u015fma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2022\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyri, sonras\u0131nda sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu; \u015fimdi g\u00f6r\u00fclen ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak izleniyor. Piyasa art\u0131k faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. CME Group verilerine g\u00f6re (CME: vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131), eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz indirimi ihtimali rapor sonras\u0131 %35\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Treasury futures: devlet tahvillerini konu alan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir; bu da ZN (10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil) veya ZB (30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (out-of-the-money call: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha yukar\u0131da olan call) da faizlerin zirvesinin geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini yans\u0131tman\u0131n ba\u015fka bir yoludur. (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; k\u0131sa vadeli faizler i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131nda bu \u201cdezenflasyon\u201d sinyali (enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi), \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri i\u00e7in destekleyici. Nasdaq 100 ve S&P 500 t\u00fcrevlerinde (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri bir endekse\/varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201ccall spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call satma) ile y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine maruz kalma maliyeti azalt\u0131labilir. VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi, \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) bu haberle %12 d\u00fc\u015ferek 14,5 seviyesine geriledi; bu da kayg\u0131 azald\u0131k\u00e7a oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (volatility selling: oynakl\u0131k \u00fczerinden prim toplama) arayanlar i\u00e7in sinyal olarak okunuyor.<\/p>\n
Fed beklentilerindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flamaya yol a\u00e7abilir. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 104 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inerek y\u0131l i\u00e7i diplerini test ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda euro veya Japon yeni gibi para birimlerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyonlara (call) ilgiyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz veri! ABD \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE martta %3,8 ile beklenti %4,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; dezenflasyon sinyali Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini sorgulat\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60, dolar zay\u0131f, tahviller-hisseler destekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44581\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}