ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (ayl\u0131k) martta %0,5 oldu. Bu oran, beklenen %1,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde tahmin edilenden daha yava\u015f artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen (%0,5) ile beklenti (%1,2) aras\u0131ndaki fark 0,7 y\u00fczde puan.<\/p>\n
Mart \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin %0,5 ile %1,2\u2019lik beklentinin belirgin alt\u0131nda gelmesi, toptan sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeyindeki enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilerleyen d\u00f6nemdeki politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkiliyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (Fed\u2019in bir sonraki faiz karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasadaki olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 fiyatlardan t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) art\u0131k haziranda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin ge\u00e7en hafta %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bu sabah %40\u2019a geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde (faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) \u201cuzun pozisyonu\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa daha sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131rma) beklentisini geri \u00e7ekiyor. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (k\u0131sa vadeli ABD faizini izleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri ZT (faiz beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da benzer \u015fekilde, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise daha az sert bir Fed beklentisi \u201columlu\u201d bir sinyal. Bu ortam, gelecekteki k\u00e2rlar\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferini hesaplarken kullan\u0131lan iskonto oran\u0131n\u0131 (gelecek kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcne indirgemede kullan\u0131lan faiz\/indirgeme oran\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlere (\u00f6rne\u011fin teknoloji) destek olur. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Nasdaq 100\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyetli al\u0131m stratejisi olan call spread (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir call satmak) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015fesi azald\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenebilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi VIX (S&P 500\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentiyi \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 19 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrederken, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 16 seviyesine do\u011fru gerileyebilir. VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) veya oynakl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan opsiyon) bu senaryoya y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7eneklerdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri! ABD \u00dcFE martta %0,5 ile %1,2 beklentinin 0,7 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Fed\u2019in haziran faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019a indi; tahvil, Nasdaq destekli. VIX gev\u015feyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}