ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE, ayl\u0131k) martta %0,5 oldu. Beklenti %1,2 idi.<\/p>\n
Mart verisi, tahminden 0,7 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck geldi. Bu, \u00fcretici (toptan) fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde beklenenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Mart \u00dcFE\u2019nin %0,5 gelmesi, %1,2\u2019lik beklentinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, toptan fiyat d\u00fczeyinde (\u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131) enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada daha az \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli) bir Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; bu da hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu beklentiye g\u00f6re S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100 endekslerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, olas\u0131 bir \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201dnden (endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) yararlanman\u0131n do\u011frudan yollar\u0131ndan biri olabilir. CME FedWatch Tool (Vadeli i\u015flemlerden hareketle Fed\u2019in faiz karar olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) art\u0131k may\u0131sta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15 olarak i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta fiyatlanan %60 seviyesinden sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da genelde olumsuzdur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri azal\u0131r. Benzer bir dinamikte, enflasyon verisindeki s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) 22\u2019den 16\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00fc\u00e7 haftada geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. VIX\u2019te call spread satmak (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda birden fazla fiyat seviyesini kullanarak olu\u015fturulan, prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) veya VIX sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, sakinle\u015fen piyasaya y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyon olabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti; haber sonras\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 20 baz puan (0,20 y\u00fczde puan) d\u00fc\u015ferek %3,95\u2019e indi. Bu hareketin devam\u0131na oynayan t\u00fcrev (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, TLT gibi Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bakabilir. Bu, 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair inanc\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha az \u015fahin bir Fed, \u00f6zellikle di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korurken, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 genelde zay\u0131flat\u0131r. EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde al\u0131m opsiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ge\u00e7en ay da \u015fahin bir duru\u015f (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma\/ art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) sinyali vermi\u015fti. Bu \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euro i\u00e7in dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekleyici r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz \u00dcFE freni! ABD mart \u00dcFE %0,5\u2019te kalarak %1,2 beklentiyi 0,7 puan a\u015ft\u0131; Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi zay\u0131flad\u0131, faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, tahvil getirileri geriledi, dolar bask\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}