ABD\u2019de ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 21 Mart\u2019ta 39 bin oldu. \u00d6nceki seviye 26 bindi.<\/p>\n
Bu, \u00f6nceki de\u011fere g\u00f6re d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamada 13 binlik art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. G\u00fcncelleme, Mart ay\u0131 verilerini kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zel sekt\u00f6rde (kamu d\u0131\u015f\u0131) istihdam\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 39 bine y\u00fckselmesi, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. 26 binden y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da bu, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve kontrols\u00fcz bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Bu \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7, ekonominin h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; ancak yava\u015f ilerledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %1,3 GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Bu istihdam verisi, enflasyonun Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) hedefi olan %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde, %2,7 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d (faiz indirimleri ve piyasay\u0131 destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerde temkinli olmak gerekiyor. Bu ortam, faizlerin yatay ya da hafif yukar\u0131 seyretti\u011fi senaryolarda i\u015fe yarayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cput\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, istikrarl\u0131 bir i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyici bir temel olu\u015fturur. Bu da faiz endi\u015feleriyle olu\u015fabilecek geri \u00e7ekilmelerde S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde \u201ccall\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n sert de\u011fil kademeli olma ihtimali y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeleri i\u00e7in daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131\u201d (opsiyonda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) se\u00e7mek daha uygun olur.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam verisinde belirgin bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k olmamas\u0131, sert bir ekonomik daralma riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi; piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku\u201d g\u00f6stergesi) son d\u00f6nemde 15-17 band\u0131na oturmas\u0131yla, istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firketlerde \u201cout-of-the-money put satmak\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan put opsiyonunu satmak). Bu y\u00f6ntem, \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplar ve piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok ya\u015famamas\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda da bu veriye g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. T\u00fcketicinin istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131) hisselerini destekleyebilir; bu nedenle t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu; bir endeksi\/temay\u0131 takip eden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) call opsiyonlar\u0131 makul olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler (faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden daha \u00e7ok etkilenen) olan elektrik\/altyap\u0131 \u015firketleri ve gayrimenkul, piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentisini azaltmas\u0131 halinde zay\u0131f kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ADP raporu \u00f6nemli bir ipucu; ancak as\u0131l teyit, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP; ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisiyle gelecek. Bu nedenle \u015fu a\u015famada al\u0131nacak pozisyonlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmal\u0131; NFP\u2019nin bu e\u011filimi do\u011frulayabilece\u011fi gibi tamamen tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde esnek kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de ADP 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama istihdam 39 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki 26 bin): \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma. Enflasyon %2,7 ile Fed indirimi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; faizler yatay\/yukar\u0131. NFP \u00f6ncesi temkinli pozisyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44577\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}