EUR\/USD daha \u00f6nce **faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n** (ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; bu durum, Trump y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda **ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine** ba\u011flan\u0131yordu. Son d\u00f6nemde ise parite, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD ekonomisinin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve ABD, belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde **g\u00fcvenli liman** (kriz zamanlar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi, daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k\/\u00fclke) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
1,18\u2019e do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f, ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. ABD\u2019nin, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne k\u0131yasla **petrol fiyat \u015fokuna** (petrol\u00fcn h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert pahalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye olumsuz etkisi) daha az a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lave y\u00fckseli\u015fler, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimaline; buna **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n** (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca beklenen **ECB faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n** (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini y\u00fckseltmesi) destek olaca\u011f\u0131, paritenin yeniden 1,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zlemimize g\u00f6re EUR\/USD, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckselmiyor. 2025\u2019te parite, yeni y\u00f6netimin daha zay\u0131f dolar istedi\u011fi inanc\u0131yla belirgin \u015fekilde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi ise dolar, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisi ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fcvenli liman alg\u0131s\u0131yla destek buluyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler bu fark\u0131 net g\u00f6steriyor: ABD\u2019de ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 seviyesinde izlenirken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in beklenti %0,9. ABD\u2019nin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131 ve son petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha az k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131, euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. 1,18\u2019e kadar olan son y\u00fckseli\u015f, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan kay\u0131plar\u0131 ancak telafi etti.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu hafta tablo de\u011fi\u015fiyor. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de gerilimin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemiler i\u00e7in baz\u0131 sigortac\u0131lar\u0131n **risk primini** (sigorta maliyetine eklenen, artan riskin fiyat\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildiriliyor. Bu geli\u015fme, Brent petrol\u00fcn son bir haftada %8 gerilemesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu ve enerjiye daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in belirgin bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde mart enflasyonu h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeyken, piyasalar hazirana kadar ECB\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; **Fed\u2019in** (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ise faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. **T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (fiyat\u0131 d\u00f6viz, faiz, emtia gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, **1,20 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call; belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 zaman\u0131nda bir hamle haline getirebilir. Bu strateji, gerilim d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam ederse olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi yakalamak i\u00e7in vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 ay olan opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k** (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasada beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi; ancak gerilim azald\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonlar daha ucuzlayabilir. Bu da 1,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in \u00f6nceden belirli bir riskle pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc EUR\/USD\u2019de: Faiz farklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen euro s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve g\u00fcvenli liman dolar destekliyor. Gerilim d\u00fc\u015fer, petrol geriler, ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa 1,20 yeniden g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}