RBA Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser, kurulun mevcut politika faizinin (nakit faiz\/cash rate) enflasyonu %2\u2013%3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrece\u011fine dair \u201cy\u00fcksek g\u00fcvene\u201d sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Hauser bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 New York\u2019taki bir sohbet toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hauser, enflasyonun \u201cfazla y\u00fcksek\u201d oldu\u011funu belirterek, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n hanehalk\u0131 gelirleri \u00fczerindeki etkisini (gelir \u015foku: enerji maliyeti art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi) de\u011ferlendirdiklerini s\u00f6yledi. Faizlerin enflasyonu yeniden hedefe indirecek seviyede belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fini, gerekirse artabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
RBA \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en ay, petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde, daha y\u00fcksek benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n man\u015fet enflasyonu (genel enflasyon: t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren toplam T\u00dcFE) 2. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. Bu oran %2\u2013%3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olur.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon s\u00fcrerse, May\u0131s sonras\u0131 politika faizinin %4,35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kayg\u0131lar, 2025\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %3,6\u2019da kalmas\u0131yla (inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon: fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek seyretmesi) destek buluyor; bu seviye RBA hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu veriler, enflasyonun %5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine dair uyar\u0131y\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleriyle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, daha y\u00fcksek politika faizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasa tepkisi de bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: 2025 ortas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bankalararas\u0131 nakit faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (vadeli i\u015flem: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) %4,60 politika faizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faizde art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya art\u0131\u015fa oynama (korunma\/hedge: olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Faiz art\u0131rma ihtimali emsallerine g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek bir merkez bankas\u0131, sermaye giri\u015fini art\u0131rarak para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (g\u00fcvercin: s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nan, faizi art\u0131rmaya daha az istekli) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 AUD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7lenme senaryosu izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131 piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir. AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ve \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarda (opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131; zorunluluk de\u011fil) ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu durum, y\u00f6n yerine oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklanan i\u015flem stratejileri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA\u2019dan \u015fahin sinyal: Hauser, mevcut faizin enflasyonu %2\u2013%3\u2019e indirece\u011fine \u201cy\u00fcksek g\u00fcven\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Petrol \u015foku riski %5 enflasyon senaryosu, 25 bp art\u0131\u015f ve AUD deste\u011fini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44574\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}