{"id":44573,"date":"2026-04-14T14:55:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:55:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-analistleri-mart-ayi-nihai-euro-bolgesi-tufe-verisinin-hurmuz-kaynakli-enerji-sokunun-etkilerini-ve-ab-siyasetinin-yansimalarini-netlestirecegini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T14:55:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:55:04","slug":"rabobank-analistleri-mart-ayi-nihai-euro-bolgesi-tufe-verisinin-hurmuz-kaynakli-enerji-sokunun-etkilerini-ve-ab-siyasetinin-yansimalarini-netlestirecegini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-analistleri-mart-ayi-nihai-euro-bolgesi-tufe-verisinin-hurmuz-kaynakli-enerji-sokunun-etkilerini-ve-ab-siyasetinin-yansimalarini-netlestirecegini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank analistleri, mart ay\u0131 nihai Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE verisinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun etkilerini ve AB siyasetinin yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in Mart ay\u0131na ait nihai T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu veriler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun (petrol ve do\u011fal gaz gibi enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani y\u00fckseli\u015f) para birli\u011fi genelinde enflasyona nas\u0131l yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha net g\u00f6sterebilir. Odak, enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (akaryak\u0131t, elektrik, \u0131s\u0131nma) genel Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik: maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131) \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n

Macaristan\u2019da Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7im yenilgisinin ard\u0131ndan yeni ba\u015fbakan Magyar, Macaristan\u2019\u0131n Ukrayna i\u00e7in AB\u2019nin 90 milyar avroluk kredisini (AB\u2019nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli finansman) bloke etmesini sona erdirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. NATO\u2019ya deste\u011fini yineledi; ancak Ukrayna\u2019ya ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde destek konusunda net taahh\u00fct vermedi.<\/p>\n

Eurozone Inflation Energy Pass Through<\/h3>\n

AB d\u00fczeyinde Avrupa Komisyonu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ursula von der Leyen, d\u0131\u015f politikada \u00fclke vetolar\u0131 (tek bir \u00fclkenin karar\u0131 durdurabilmesi) yerine nitelikli \u00e7o\u011funluk oylamas\u0131na (\u00fcye \u00fclkelerin belirli say\u0131sal a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla belirlenen \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu) ge\u00e7ilmesini savunuyor. \u00d6neri siyasi olarak tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131; AB b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmesini genel olarak destekleyen \u00fclkelerde bile itirazlar var.<\/p>\n

Nihai Mart Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE verilerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu veriler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 geriliminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji \u015fokunu tam olarak yans\u0131tan ilk kapsaml\u0131 set olacak. Brent petrol\u00fcn Mart sonunda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ilk tahminler, man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel T\u00dcFE) \u015eubat 2026\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,1\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da piyasalarda sert dalgalanma yaratabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar veride s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131; beklenenden y\u00fcksek bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz politikas\u0131nda daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa zorlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Macaristan\u2019daki siyasi de\u011fi\u015fim, euro cinsi varl\u0131klar \u00fczerindeki \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. 90 milyar avroluk Ukrayna kredi paketinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, AB i\u00e7inde yeniden siyasi uyum sinyali veriyor ve tek para birimi \u00fczerindeki \u201cu\u00e7 risk\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck etkili risk) azalt\u0131yor. Euro\u2019nun seyrine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda Macaristan vetosu s\u00fcrekli bir tehditken kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerini (fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7mekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 e\u015fikler) a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Daha uzun vadede d\u0131\u015f politikada nitelikli \u00e7o\u011funluk oylamas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f, takip edilmesi gereken yap\u0131sal bir geli\u015fme. Ama\u00e7, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yard\u0131m paketleri ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar konusunda piyasada belirsizlik yaratan tek \u00fclke kaynakl\u0131 t\u0131kanmalar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek. S\u00fcre\u00e7 yava\u015f ilerlese de at\u0131lacak her ad\u0131m, uzun vadeli euro opsiyonlar\u0131na (belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yans\u0131yan siyasi risk primini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Implications For Euro Rates And FX<\/h3>\n

2025\u2019te piyasa anlat\u0131s\u0131nda AB i\u00e7i siyasi s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler ve bunun yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nisan 2026\u2019da ise siyasi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi euro i\u00e7in destekleyici bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. Ancak bu tablo, 2022 krizini hat\u0131rlatan enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir enflasyon \u015fokunun para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni belirsizlik yaratmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler Mart nihai Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE\u2019de: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun enflasyona ge\u00e7i\u015fi netle\u015fecek, s\u00fcrpriz ECB\u2019yi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Macaristan\u2019da veto riski azal\u0131rken, AB\u2019de \u00e7o\u011funluk oylamas\u0131 euro risk primini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44573"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44573\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}