{"id":44571,"date":"2026-04-14T14:30:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bbhden-elias-haddad-risk-istahindaki-iyilesme-ve-abd-iran-ateskesinin-surmesi-brenti-dusuruyor-dolar-zayifliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T14:30:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T14:30:13","slug":"bbhden-elias-haddad-risk-istahindaki-iyilesme-ve-abd-iran-ateskesinin-surmesi-brenti-dusuruyor-dolar-zayifliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bbhden-elias-haddad-risk-istahindaki-iyilesme-ve-abd-iran-ateskesinin-surmesi-brenti-dusuruyor-dolar-zayifliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\u2019den Elias Haddad: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin s\u00fcrmesi Brent\u2019i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran diplomasisinin ate\u015fkesi ayakta tutmas\u0131yla toparland\u0131. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na geriledi; hisse senetleri ve tahviller y\u00fckseldi; ABD Dolar\u0131 da ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY \u2014 dolar\u0131n euro, yen, sterlin gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) yeniden a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla faiz farklar\u0131na (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki politika faizi fark\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 hareket etmesi bekleniyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay boyunca 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131 ve Enerji Piyasalar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Enerji kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok s\u00fcrebilir; ancak en sert d\u00f6nemin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. 30 Mart, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir dip seviye olarak i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Uzun vadede ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin daha zay\u0131f beklenti, ABD\u2019nin ticaret ve g\u00fcvenlik politikas\u0131na duyulan g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanma nedeniyle finansman kapasitesine dair alg\u0131) bozulmas\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) siyasetin etkisine daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmesi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar yeniden \u201crisk alma\u201d moduna (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ge\u00e7erken, dalgalanma (volatilite \u2014 fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oynama d\u00fczeyi) taraf\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX \u2014 S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 25\u2019in \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, opsiyon satarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde put kredi spread\u2019i (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, prim geliri hedefleyen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Dolar Band\u0131 ve Opsiyon Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

DXY\u2019nin 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve \u015fu anda 97,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor. Bu t\u00fcr yatay seyir, iron condor (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanan, ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan strateji) gibi yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131, d\u00f6vizi takip eden ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) daha cazip hale getirebilir. Faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile fark\u0131n azalmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Daha uzun vadeli pozisyonlarda ise, yap\u0131sal sorunlar nedeniyle dolar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi korunuyor. 2025 boyunca izlenen e\u011filimlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin (CBO \u2014 ABD\u2019de b\u00fct\u00e7e ve bor\u00e7 projeksiyonlar\u0131 yapan kurum) ABD borcunun mill\u00ee gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n (bor\u00e7\/GSYH \u2014 toplam kamu borcunun \u00fclke ekonomisine oran\u0131) bu y\u0131l %110\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle, DXY \u00fczerinde daha uzun vadeli put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) almak bir pozisyon se\u00e7ene\u011fi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Brent petrol\u00fcn Mart zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, enerji \u015fokunun en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn geride kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 90\u2019l\u0131 dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru ek bir gerileme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, ABD ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda s\u00fcren diplomasinin jeopolitik havay\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmesiyle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ate\u015fkesle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 h\u0131zla d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Brent 100 dolar alt\u0131na inerken borsalar y\u00fckseldi, dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. DXY\u2019nin 96-100 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; uzun vadede dolar bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}