ABD\u2019de NFIB (Ulusal Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u0130\u015fletmeler Federasyonu) \u0130\u015f \u0130yimserli\u011fi Endeksi martta 95,8 oldu. Bu seviye, beklenen 98,6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmelerde iyimserli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ekonomi i\u00e7in net bir uyar\u0131 sinyali. Bu \u015firketler istihdam\u0131n (i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n) \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, temkinli davranmalar\u0131 ileride a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verilerinde ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131na ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 stratejileri g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nde (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; VIX 17 civar\u0131nda. Bu seviye y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar (opsiyon ve vadeli gibi ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar), VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 veya S&P 500 \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak sert harekete oynayan strateji) kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerin (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye daha duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler), \u00f6rne\u011fin iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) ve sanayinin, bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi beklenebilir. Bu sekt\u00f6rleri izleyen ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, savunma sekt\u00f6rlerinde (yava\u015flamada daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131), sa\u011fl\u0131k ve kamu hizmetleri (utilities) gibi alanlarda nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak put satmak) izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in tablo zor. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi enflasyonun %3,5 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Zay\u0131f NFIB verisi, ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve faizi sabit tutma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Federal fon vadeli i\u015flemlerine (federal funds futures: politika faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan vadeli kontratlar) ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerde, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022\u2019de ya\u015fanan sert ve enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131flamadan farkl\u0131. \u015eu anda veriler birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor; son istihdam raporu beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 280 bin yeni i\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, net bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7ok belirsizlik d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, piyasada yatay bantta hareketten faydalanan stratejiler (range-bound: belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurulan, fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan \u201caral\u0131k stratejisi\u201d).<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NFIB \u0130\u015f \u0130yimserli\u011fi martta 95,8\u2019le beklenti 98,6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler frene bas\u0131yor. VIX 17\u2019ye t\u0131rman\u0131rken d\u00f6ng\u00fcseller bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir; Fed\u2019de indirim fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44567\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}