Brent petrol\u00fc, ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Anl\u0131k (spot) Brent, \u00f6nceki seans\u0131 %4,37 art\u0131\u015fla 99,36 dolardan kapatt\u0131ktan sonra 97,76 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
Brent, gece saatlerinde %1,61 daha d\u00fc\u015ferek yeniden 98 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu durum, \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyrederken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 endeksi %1,02 y\u00fckseldi ve 27 \u015eubat\u2019taki sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kapand\u0131. Petrol vadeli i\u015flem (futures) fiyatlar\u0131 spot seviyelerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
6 ayl\u0131k Brent vadeli kontrat\u0131 83,55 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 12 ayl\u0131k Brent vadeli kontrat\u0131 78,57 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Spot fiyat ile ileri vadeli kontratlar aras\u0131ndaki fark, zaman i\u00e7inde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent ham petrol\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yeniden artan gerilim nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken piyasada tedirginlik i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir tablo veriyor: 6 ayl\u0131k kontrat 85 dolar civar\u0131nda, 12 ayl\u0131k kontrat ise 80 dolara daha yak\u0131n. Bu belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fim, \u201cbackwardation\u201d (spot ve yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n, daha uzun vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131; piyasada k\u0131sa vadeli arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131) olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n mevcut fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yap\u0131ya benzer bir piyasa g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc var: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131 spot Brent\u2019i vadeli kontratlar\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde piyasa, jeopolitik korkular\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n izleyen aylarda normale d\u00f6nece\u011fini do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc vadeli fiyat e\u011frisinin (futures curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki kontrat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu yap\u0131) iyi bir g\u00f6sterge olabilece\u011fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (derivative: de\u011feri petrol gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) yararlanmak amac\u0131yla en yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu strateji, prim (premium: opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedel) toplamay\u0131 hedefler; jeopolitik risk azal\u0131rsa ve fiyatlar yatayla\u015f\u0131r ya da vadeli e\u011frinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi seviyelere geri \u00e7ekilirse fayda sa\u011flar. EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) K\u0131sa Vadeli Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel talepte hafif yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ederek mevcut fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m \u201ctakvim spreadi\u201ddir (calendar spread: yak\u0131n vade kontrat\u0131n\u0131 satarken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 daha uzun vade kontrat\u0131n\u0131 almak). Bu i\u015flem, yak\u0131n vade fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmi\u015f (deferred: daha ileri vade) fiyata g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle e\u011frinin \u201cd\u00fczle\u015fmesinden\u201d (flattening: vadeler aras\u0131 fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) do\u011frudan kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bu, uzun vadede petrole kesin olarak \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d (bearish: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almadan normalle\u015fmeye oynama y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131yla Brent 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Vadeli e\u011fri backwardation; 6 ay 83,6$, 12 ay 78,6$. Bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi ve takvim spread\/opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44566\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}