ABD hisseleri haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi; b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerin \u00e7o\u011fu %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da kapatt\u0131. Avrupa borsalar\u0131 da sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi izledi. FTSE 100 %0,2, Dax yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 ve Cac %0,4 y\u00fckseldi. Petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle FTSE 250 daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberlerin ard\u0131ndan 98,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 kapal\u0131. ABD ve \u0130ran, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ileride devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, BP dahil \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. BP\u2019nin hisse fiyat\u0131, olumlu bir i\u015flem g\u00fcncellemesine ra\u011fmen \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. BP, petrolde al-sat faaliyetlerinde (ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) 1\u00c7 i\u00e7in \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc\u201d bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, petrol ve gaz \u00fcretiminin bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini (\u00e7eyreklik bazda yatay) ve ay sonunda sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
BP hisseleri y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %33 y\u00fckseldi. Ancak sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Emtia (petrol gibi ham madde) piyasas\u0131nda baz\u0131 i\u015flemciler \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda zarar ederken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 fiziki piyasada (ger\u00e7ek teslimatl\u0131) daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlardan kargo ve tanker al-sat yaparak k\u00e2r yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Nasdaq ise \u015fubat ba\u015f\u0131 seviyelerine geri geldi. Oracle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %12 y\u00fckseldi ve S&P 500\u2019de g\u00fcn\u00fcn en iyi performans g\u00f6steren hissesi oldu.<\/p>\n
Dolar endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Piyasalar, JP Morgan\u2019\u0131n 1\u00c7 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 dahil ABD banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Almanya ve \u0130spanya\u2019da enflasyon beklendi\u011fi gibi y\u00fckseldi. Dikkat, IMF Bahar toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ile ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lagarde dahil merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6neme d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasalar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sona erebilece\u011fi ihtimaline daha iyimser yakla\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu iyimserlik, riskli varl\u0131klarda (hisse senedi gibi fiyat\u0131 daha \u00e7ok dalgalanan yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn de benzer bir tablo var: Brent, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara geriledi; ge\u00e7en hafta 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde BP\u2019nin \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc\u201d i\u015flem sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f oynakl\u0131ktan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500\u2019de beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u015fu anda 18 civar\u0131nda. Bu, enerji taraf\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanmaya devam edebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (endeks fonu; sepet halinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) straddle veya strangle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir:
\n– **Straddle**: Ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olursa (yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131) kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek.
\n– **Strangle**: Al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan almak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerektirir.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te S&P 500, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere toparlanarak hisse senetlerinde \u201crisk alma\u201d i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn de endeks 5.600 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve son geri \u00e7ekilmenin (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etti. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon\/vadeli gibi) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, put opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n) y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131 iki \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirebilir: uzun portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etmek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak) veya mevcut pozisyonlar \u00fczerinde covered call yazmak (eldeki hisseyi teminat g\u00f6stererek al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p gelir elde etmek). \u201cKapsaml\u0131 teminatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen covered call, piyasan\u0131n yataya d\u00f6nece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in gelir ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te teknoloji hisselerindeki toparlanma, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201cyapay zek\u00e2 korkusu\u201d (AI ile ilgili endi\u015feler) sonras\u0131 ABD endekslerini desteklemi\u015fti. 2026\u2019da ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ralli sonras\u0131 baz\u0131 yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisseler pahal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bir\u00e7ok lider \u015firkette fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. F\/K oran\u0131, hissenin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u015firket k\u00e2r\u0131na g\u00f6re ne kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir; y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e \u201cpahal\u0131\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 artar. Bu ortamda Nasdaq 100 gibi teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde collar stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir: eldeki pozisyonu korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak ve maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yukar\u0131dan al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; kazanc\u0131 korur, yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken dolar endeksi belirgin zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn tablo farkl\u0131: ABD\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon) son olarak %3,1\u2019de ve bu durum dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeli. Fed\u2019den farkl\u0131 bir politika \u00e7izgisi sinyali (faiz indirimi\/indirimsiz seyir gibi) gelmesi, d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilir; \u00f6zellikle EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 100 dolar alt\u0131na inerken k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131: ABD endeksleri %1+ y\u00fckseldi, Avrupa izledi. G\u00f6zler BP ve banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda; VIX 18. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44565\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}