\u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n 3 ayl\u0131k Letras ihalesinde getiri (faiz) %2,111\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki ihalede %1,964\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu art\u0131\u015f, para piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetindeki bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, Mart 2026 Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesine ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na do\u011frudan bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda beklenen faiz indirimi umutlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ocak 2026\u2019daki son art\u0131\u015ftan bu yana mevduat faizi (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla paraya uygulanan faiz) %3,0 seviyesinde olan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), \u015fimdi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Piyasa, bu yaz faiz indirimi ihtimalini h\u0131zla fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS: piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, gecelik faize dayal\u0131 swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ECB yetkililerinden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir mesaj tonu beklemesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleriyle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131nda (\u00f6n u\u00e7: 1-2 y\u0131l gibi k\u0131sa vadeler) faizlerin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma anlam\u0131na geliyor. Aral\u0131k 2026 Euribor vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (Euribor futures: Euro bankalararas\u0131 faiz beklentisine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontrat) k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) al\u0131nmas\u0131 uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB beklenenden daha sert davran\u0131rsa bu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer (vadeli fiyat ile faiz ters hareket eder). Mevcut ivme (momentum: fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 96,80 \u00fczerinden bu kontratlar\u0131 satmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda bu geli\u015fme Euro\u2019yu temel olarak destekliyor. Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) uzun bir bekleme s\u00fcrecine (faizleri sabit tutma) i\u015faret etmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ECB\u2019nin daha \u015fahin kalmas\u0131, EUR\/USD paritesini (Euro\/dolar kuru) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Euro\u2019da al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev) alarak, \u015eubat 2026\u2019da son g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1100 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 2024\u2019teki oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6neminden hat\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir tema olan devlet tahvili spread\u2019lerini (getiri fark\u0131: iki \u00fclke tahvil faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) yeniden g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. \u0130spanya ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bir f\u0131rsata i\u015faret ediyor. \u201c\u00c7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: iki \u00fcr\u00fcnde ayn\u0131 anda z\u0131t pozisyon alarak farktan yararlanma) kapsam\u0131nda Alman Schatz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7) pozisyon al\u0131p, ayn\u0131 anda \u0130spanyol Bono vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak, \u00e7evre \u00fclke bor\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131ndaki bu stres artarsa getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u0131cak geli\u015fme: \u0130spanya 3 ayl\u0131k Letras faizi %2,111\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi ECB\u2019yi \u015fahinle\u015ftiriyor; indirim beklentileri zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Euribor short, EUR\/USD yukar\u0131 hedef; Schatz long\u2013\u0130spanya Bono short f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44563\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}