Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeksin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kontratlar) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,12 y\u00fckselerek 48.500 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,16 ve %0,28 artarak 6.930 ve 25.600 seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri, Wall Street\u2019te pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan art\u0131da seyretti. Dow Jones %0,63 y\u00fckselirken, S&P 500 ve Nasdaq Bile\u015fik (Composite) endeksi %1,02 ve %1,23 artt\u0131. <\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici ad\u0131mlar) beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Stephen Miran, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini (halk ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekte enflasyonun nerede olaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) bozmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde hedefe d\u00f6nece\u011fini bekliyor. <\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temasa ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve m\u00fczakerelere yeniden ba\u015flamak istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, s\u00fcren diplomatik temaslara i\u015faret ederek hafta sonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yap\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tutumunun daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. <\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Semafor\u2019a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada faiz indirimi \u00f6ncesinde \u201cbekle ve g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n benimsenmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bessent, son d\u00f6nemdeki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerine kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yerle\u015fmeyece\u011finden (piyasada \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesinden) emin oldu\u011funu ifade etti. <\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler ayr\u0131ca JPMorgan Chase ve Wells Fargo dahil yakla\u015fan banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda. Goldman Sachs, sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymetler (tahvil gibi d\u00fczenli faiz getirisi olan \u00fcr\u00fcnler), d\u00f6viz ve emtia i\u015flemlerinde gelirinin beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 geriledi. <\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riskinin azalmas\u0131yla, volatilite (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k), VIX ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr; VIX, ilk gerilimde y\u00fckselmi\u015f olabilir. Olas\u0131 tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle VIX gibi g\u00f6stergeler yeniden 10\u2019lu seviyelerin ortas\u0131na gerileyebilir. Bu ortamda SPX (S&P 500 endeksi) \u00fczerinde kredi spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (opsiyon priminden gelir hedefleyen, riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 spread stratejisi) daha cazip hale gelebilir. <\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinin en h\u0131zl\u0131 etkisi petrolde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Son haftalarda \u201c\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma primi\u201d (jeopolitik risk nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) ile varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara yakla\u015fan petrol, 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geri \u00e7ekilebilir. ABD Petrol Fonu (USO) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) veya petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flem) bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in net y\u00f6ntemlerdir. <\/p>\n
Enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla, genel piyasa endekslerinde temkinli iyimser bir duru\u015f al\u0131nabilir. Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) geri geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. QQQ (Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fc izleyen ETF) \u00fczerinde call spread almak (y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyetle faydalanan, risk\/\u00f6d\u00fcl s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 belli opsiyon stratejisi), yakla\u015fan banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde riski tan\u0131mlayarak y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flayabilir. <\/p>\n
Finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller, banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir stratejiyi gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n zay\u0131f al\u0131m-sat\u0131m geliri bir uyar\u0131 i\u015fareti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n JPMorgan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir. Bu da sekt\u00f6rde sert fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. XLF (Finans Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc SPDR ETF) \u00fczerinde uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak, fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00fcresel piyasalarda ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: ABD vadeli endeksleri y\u00fckseli\u015fte. Petrol\u00fcn geri \u00e7ekilmesi enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131; \u0130ran tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. G\u00f6zler banka bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44560\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}