Avustralya Dolar\u0131 (AUD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; yaln\u0131zca ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) kar\u015f\u0131 daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser\u2019\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131ndaki aksama ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar\u0131n zor ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan AUD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Hauser, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 (mal ve hizmetlerin yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00fcretilememesi\/ta\u015f\u0131namamas\u0131) ortam\u0131nda ekonominin \u201cenerji krizi \u015fokunu absorbe etmekte\u201d zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da \u201cstagflasyon benzeri bir senaryo\u201d riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. (Stagflasyon: Ekonomi zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcrken veya durgunken fiyatlar\u0131n yine de h\u0131zla artmas\u0131.) Hauser, bunun merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201ck\u00e2bus\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 Avustralyal\u0131 \u015firketlerin \u00e7eyreklik k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feler artt\u0131. Westpac, enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini; buna kar\u015f\u0131n daha yava\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin baz\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fteriler i\u00e7in daha zorlu bir ortam yaratabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes i\u00e7in m\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle k\u0131smen toparland\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri (endeksin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kontratlar) 6.900 civar\u0131nda %0,2 y\u00fckselirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,00 civar\u0131nda %0,2 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Reuters, ABD ve \u0130ran m\u00fczakere ekiplerinin bu hafta \u0130slamabad\u2019da yeniden bir araya gelebilece\u011fini bildirdi. \u0130lk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonu\u00e7suz bitti; ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 konular\u0131ndaki taleplerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu stagflasyon riski yaln\u0131zca s\u00f6ylem de\u011fil; izlenen veriler de bunu destekliyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ait GSYH (GDP: ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) verisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %0,3\u2019e kadar yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Y\u00fckselen fiyatlar ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, RBA yetkilisinin tarif etti\u011fi \u201ck\u00e2bus\u201d senaryonun kendisi.<\/p>\n
Enerji \u015foku ana itici unsur. Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) son haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu durum \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u00e2r\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flara oran\u0131n\u0131) ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rarak Avustralya ekonomisi i\u00e7in olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu etkiyi orta vadede s\u00fcrebilecek temel bir bask\u0131 unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlikle birlikte AUD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d y\u00fckseldi. (\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki dalgalanma beklentisi.) Aussie VIX (AUD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 9,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortamda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanabilen opsiyon) almak, AUD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynarken azami riski en ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha cazip hale geliyor. Son veriler ayr\u0131ca Avustralya dolar\u0131 aleyhine spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n (net short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyonlar\u0131n toplamda artmas\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok uyar\u0131s\u0131: RBA\u2019dan stagflasyon alarm\u0131 AUD\u2019yi vurdu. Enerji arz\u0131 riski, y\u00fcksek T\u00dcFE ve zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme bask\u0131 yaparken oynakl\u0131k ve net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar art\u0131yor; put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}