S&P 500, piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ve olas\u0131 ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini fiyatlamas\u0131yla, sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ek y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol gece boyunca %-1,61 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97,76 dolara geriledi. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (ekonomi yava\u015flarken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 %1,02 y\u00fckseldi ve 27 \u015eubat\u2019taki sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi kapan\u0131\u015f seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlad\u0131. Endeks, 30 Mart\u2019taki kapan\u0131\u015f dibinden bu yana %8,55 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, son 4 y\u0131ldaki en iyi ikinci 9 seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f serisi oldu. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tek 9 seansl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u201cKurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d sonras\u0131 gelen h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015fe ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcye duyarl\u0131 (b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerinde daha iyi performans g\u00f6steren) sekt\u00f6rler \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti; bilgi teknolojileri %1,72, finansallar %1,73 y\u00fckseldi. Goldman Sachs, 1. \u00e7eyrekte (Q1) FICC gelirinin (sabit getirili \u00fcr\u00fcnler, d\u00f6viz ve emtia i\u015flemlerinden elde edilen gelir) piyasa beklentisinin (konsens\u00fcs) alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 %1,87 geriledi.<\/p>\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 30 Mart dibine g\u00f6re %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesiyle, \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrolde varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 98 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, iki hafta \u00f6nce bask\u0131n olan stagflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 duygu de\u011fi\u015fimi, piyasan\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir olay olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) sert \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; VIX (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) mart sonundaki 35 \u00fczeri zirveden bug\u00fcn 18 civar\u0131na geriledi. Bu durum, panik d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha ucuz hale getiriyor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, May\u0131s vadeli SPY \u201cput opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma almak, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde olas\u0131 aksiliklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) olabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji ve finans gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerin liderli\u011fini tercih etmeye devam ediyoruz; bu alanlar daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi. XLK ve XLF ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201cbull call spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call\u2019\u0131 birlikte kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) ile 1. \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde bu momentumu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle takip etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilirken enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde zay\u0131flama bekliyoruz; XLE \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131, uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) teknoloji pozisyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cpair trade\u201d (bir varl\u0131kta uzun, di\u011ferinde k\u0131sa alarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki Kurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan sert s\u0131\u00e7ramaya benzer bi\u00e7imde, bu 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck seri son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz en agresif y\u00fckseli\u015flerden biri. Ayr\u0131ca 2020\u2019de ilk COVID \u015foku sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cV tipi toparlanma\u201dy\u0131 (sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) da hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde de dipten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliyle oynakl\u0131k h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak 16 Nisan\u2019daki T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyon verisi yakla\u015f\u0131rken, veri beklentiden daha y\u00fcksek gelirse yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeniden artabilecek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar rahat nefes ald\u0131: S&P 500 sald\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6ncesi seviyeyi a\u015ft\u0131, Brent geriledi. VIX 35\u2019ten 18\u2019e indi. D\u00f6ng\u00fcseller lider; call ilgisi art\u0131yor, CPI \u00f6ncesi put\u2019la hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44557\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}