SPY, 7 Nisan 2025\u2019teki dipten Elliott Dalga say\u0131m\u0131nda ((1)) dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseldi ve 28 Ocak 2026\u2019da 697,87 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan ((2)) dalgas\u0131nda 629,23 dolara geriledi; bu hareket Nisan 2025\u2019ten ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin tamam\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltme (\u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alma) niteli\u011findeydi. Sonras\u0131nda ((3)) dalgas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yeniden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130kili d\u00fczeltme (ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k iki d\u00fczeltme dalgas\u0131) riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in 697,87 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 gerekiyor. 629,23 dolardan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f, Elliott Dalga\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u201cimpuls\u201d (5 par\u00e7al\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc trend hareketi) yap\u0131 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
((i)) dalgas\u0131 658,52 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ((ii)) dalgas\u0131 644,16 dolara geri \u00e7ekildi. Bir sonraki a\u015fama, ((iii)) dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tamamlamak i\u00e7in daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
((iii)) dalgas\u0131ndan sonra, 2 Nisan dipten ba\u015flayan d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc d\u00fczeltmek i\u00e7in ((iv)) dalgas\u0131nda bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekleniyor; ard\u0131ndan son bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle yap\u0131 tamamlanacak. Yak\u0131n vadeli yukar\u0131 senaryo, 629,23 dolar seviyesi korunduk\u00e7a ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n
Piyasa 629,23 dolarl\u0131k \u201cpivot\u201d (kritik d\u00f6n\u00fcm\/destek seviyesi) \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, gelir \u00fcretmeye y\u00f6nelik stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan put opsiyonu satmak), \u00f6zellikle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi dolacak kontratlarda, \u201ctime decay\u201d (zaman de\u011feri erimesi; vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin azalmas\u0131) etkisinden yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar ve y\u00fckseli\u015f\u2013n\u00f6tr bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131n al\u0131c\u0131 bulabilece\u011fi fikriyle uyumludur; ancak bunun i\u00e7in ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki kritik dip seviyesinin korunmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin y\u00f6netilebilir %2,8 gelmesiyle de destekleniyor; bu, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca VIX\u2019in (korku endeksi; piyasa oynakl\u0131k beklentisini g\u00f6sterir) 14,5 ile birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne gerilemesi, opsiyon maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 daha ucuz h\u00e2le getirdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,6 ile sabit kalmas\u0131 da piyasaya destek veren bir makro zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yeni zirvelere hareket hedefleyenler i\u00e7in call opsiyonu almak (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d kurmak (ayn\u0131 vadede bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) beklenen ((3)) dalgas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fine kat\u0131lman\u0131n do\u011frudan yollar\u0131d\u0131r. 697,87 dolarl\u0131k \u00f6nceki zirveyi a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken kritik seviye olarak izliyoruz; May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeleri i\u00e7in 700 ve 710 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 daha cazip hedefler h\u00e2line geliyor. Trendin teyidi ve daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00fczeltme riskinin azalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tepenin \u00fczerine net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SPY\u2019de Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re ((3)) dalgas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131yor: 629,23 pivot \u00fcst\u00fcnde impuls y\u00fckseli\u015f izleniyor. 697,87 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m \u015fart. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX\/CPI deste\u011fiyle OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bull call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}