USD\/CHF yedinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7830 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu hareket, iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes bitmeden \u00f6nce ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapabilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temas kurdu\u011funu ve m\u00fczakerelere yeniden ba\u015flamak istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. JD Vance ise s\u00fcren diplomatik giri\u015fimlere de\u011finerek, hafta sonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tutumunu anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yap\u0131c\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesiyle \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 destek buldu. Bu durum, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) olas\u0131 politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dikkati art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu Mart\u2019ta \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,1\u2019den %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu, son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi. SNB ise CHF\u2019nin (\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fini yineledi. (M\u00fcdahale: Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkilemesi.)<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 da bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki fiyatlamay\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. (\u015eahin: Faizi y\u00fcksek tutma ya da art\u0131rma e\u011filimi.) Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Stephen Miran, \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini bozmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonun bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde hedefe d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Semafor\u2019a \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 savunarak faiz indirimi i\u00e7in acele edilmemesi gerekti\u011fini ifade etti. Son fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerine kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde yerle\u015fmesini beklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (Enflasyon beklentileri: Hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyon tahmini; kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 besleyebilir.)<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrerken, k\u0131sa vadede \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden yararlanabilecek stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/CHF paritesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya imk\u00e2n verirken olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. (Sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put: Belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; prim: opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel.) Bu, piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamas\u0131yla da ili\u015fkili; anla\u015fma ihtimali, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131na talebi azalt\u0131r. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k.)<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n SNB konusunda temkinli olmak gerekir; parite, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131yor. SNB\u2019nin 2015-2022 d\u00f6neminde frang\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde savundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, yeniden harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. SNB\u2019nin piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 ya da \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin aniden \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejisi, \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle, daha uygun olabilir. (Volatilite: Fiyatlar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131. Straddle: Ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; ama\u00e7, y\u00f6n de\u011fil b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmak.)<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise piyasa, alttan gelen enflasyon risklerini g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (Core CPI: Enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatlama ge\u00e7ici olabilir. Yakla\u015fan ABD verileri kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, Fed h\u0131zla yeniden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye d\u00f6nebilir ve dolar\u0131n seyrinde sert bir ters hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo enerji piyasalar\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bir anla\u015fma ihtimali, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine dair risk primini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor; d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si her g\u00fcn buradan ge\u00e7iyor. (Risk primi: Risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep edilen ek getiri.) Bu nedenle ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar, USD\/CHF\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fu tamamlay\u0131c\u0131 bir i\u015flem olabilir. (Vadeli i\u015flem\/futures: Belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kanca: USD\/CHF\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yedinci g\u00fcne uzad\u0131! \u0130ran-ABD g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme beklentisi ve gerileyen petrol, dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken franka destek veriyor. SNB m\u00fcdahale riski ve Fed\u2019in yeniden \u015fahinle\u015fmesi ters hareket yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44535\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}