USD\/CAD ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste zay\u0131f seyretti ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3790 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes bitmeden \u00f6nce yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n temasa ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve m\u00fczakerelere geri d\u00f6nmek istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek hafta sonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini yap\u0131c\u0131 olarak niteledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini azaltmas\u0131yla da geriledi. Bu durum, daha uzun s\u00fcreli bir ate\u015fkes ihtimali ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisiyle enflasyon endi\u015felerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131d\u0131r; a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131 arz endi\u015fesini azalt\u0131p petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir.)<\/p>\n
Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Stephen Miran, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani y\u00fckseli\u015fin) uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini hen\u00fcz de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedef seviyesine geri d\u00f6nmesini bekledi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (CAD, \u201cloonie\u201d olarak da an\u0131l\u0131r) zay\u0131flatabilir. Kanada, ABD\u2019ye en fazla ham petrol satan \u00fclkedir ve arz endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131yla petrol, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme haberlerinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019da CBC News, Ba\u015fbakan Mark Carney\u2019nin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Liberaller, 343 sandalyeli Avam Kamaras\u0131\u2019nda 172 sandalye elde etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde z\u0131t bask\u0131lar oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3790 \u00e7evresindeki son d\u00f6nemdeki yatay g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc piyasadaki karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eu a\u015famada tek y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyon almak (yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kesin bahis) riskli; bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda odak \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ne kadar dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) olmal\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin azalmas\u0131, pariteyi ayn\u0131 anda iki farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Kanada Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz fakt\u00f6r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte teslim edilecek petrol i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 2025 sonlar\u0131nda 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn 82 dolar civar\u0131na indi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan daha istikrarl\u0131 arz beklentisi bu hareketi destekledi. Kanada ekonomisi enerji ihracat\u0131na duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, bu fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc CAD\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi do\u011fal olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k ge\u00e7ici olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar Fed\u2019in daha az sert (daha az \u201c\u015fahin\u201d, yani faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131na ait ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI, t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en ana veri) verisi, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in hemen faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor: Fed politika faizi %5,5 iken Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi %5,0 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, USD\/CAD\u2019in bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na (range-bound: belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelmesine) i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar, y\u00f6ns\u00fczl\u00fckten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cstrangle satmak\u201d (farkl\u0131 fiyat seviyelerinden al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte satarak prim geliri hedeflemek) veya \u201ciron condor kurmak\u201d (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle prim geliri hedefleyen, d\u00f6rt opsiyonlu bir yap\u0131) gibi y\u00f6ntemler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Son g\u00fcnlerde kur \u00e7iftlerinde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) geriledi; bu da prim toplayan bu t\u00fcr stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ate\u015fkes ve Fed beklentileri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131nca USD\/CAD 1,3790\u2019da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Ancak gerileyen petrol CAD\u2019i t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00f6n karars\u0131z: bant hareketi ve oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44531\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}