USD\/JPY, 159,85 b\u00f6lgesinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda geriledi. Parite (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) 159,00 civar\u0131na indi; ancak etkenlerin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmas\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri hafta sonu sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131, buna ra\u011fmen piyasalar diplomasinin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, kayda de\u011fer ilerleme sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD enflasyonu ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verileri, enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, faiz indirimi beklentilerinin de tamamen ortadan kalkmamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yen, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 \u015foku endi\u015feleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek buldu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n resmen ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan \u0130ran sava\u015f gemilerinin vurulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran ise Basra K\u00f6rfezi ile Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki limanlar\u0131 hedef alabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya, petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede ekonomi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 artabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir ve USD\/JPY\u2019de daha derin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler zorla\u015fabilir. Ayr\u0131ca Japon yetkililerin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler de yenin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ABD deniz ablukas\u0131, sert bir enerji arz \u015fokuna yol a\u00e7t\u0131; Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 145 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Diplomatik temaslar acil krizi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rsa da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. ABD ham petrol\u00fc (WTI) \u015fu s\u0131ralar 95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum, Japonya gibi enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve yen i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz etken olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131 (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\/CPI, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla Fed, piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha sert bir tutum almak zorunda kald\u0131. Fed, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in politika faizini (federal fonlama faizi; bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verirken uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel faiz) %6,00 seviyesine y\u00fckseltti. Enflasyon mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla %4,1 olarak kaydedildi. Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle USD\/JPY \u015fu anda 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) negatif faizden \u00e7\u0131ksa da politika faizi %0,10 d\u00fczeyinde. Bu, dolar tutmay\u0131 yene g\u00f6re daha cazip k\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu farktan yararlanma i\u015flemleri (carry trade; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fte ana etken olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejileri de\u011ferlendirirken Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme veya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale riskini de hesaba katmal\u0131. Paran\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle \u00f6nemli desteklerin alt\u0131na inmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyeden uzak olan JPY al\u0131m \/ USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money; \u015fu an k\u00e2rl\u0131 olmayan opsiyon) satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Alternatif olarak USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u201cbull call spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli yap\u0131) 165,00 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 hareketten kontroll\u00fc riskle faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: USD\/JPY 159,85\u2019ten 159,00\u2019a sarkt\u0131, ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Dolar Fed\/enflasyon belirsizli\u011fiyle bask\u0131lan\u0131rken; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku, carry trade faizi ve olas\u0131 Japon m\u00fcdahalesi y\u00f6n\u00fc belirliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44530"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44530\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}