WTI, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapabilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyat\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin hedefi, mevcut iki haftal\u0131k ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k) bitmeden daha uzun vadeli bir ate\u015fkes sa\u011flamak.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile temasa ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde (\u00fclkelerin uymas\u0131 gereken ortak kurallar) diyalo\u011fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtti. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, Fox News\u2019e diplomasinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ilerleme oldu\u011funu, ancak kesin bir sonu\u00e7 (k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131) bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 Chris Wright, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni Umman Denizi\u2019ne ba\u011flayan kritik ge\u00e7it) gemi trafi\u011fi normale d\u00f6nene kadar enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fini ve y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Nakliye hatt\u0131ndaki devam eden aksaman\u0131n fiyat \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump ayr\u0131ca, y\u00fcksek petrol ve benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ara se\u00e7im d\u00f6neminde (Kongre i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imler) de s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. OPEC+ (OPEC \u00fclkeleri ve Rusya gibi ortaklar\u0131) raporuna g\u00f6re grubun \u00fcretimi Mart ay\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7,9 milyon varil azald\u0131; bunun ana nedeni H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kapanma oldu.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca, arz ve talebe dair yeni sinyaller i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ayl\u0131k Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 raporu var.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 risklerin ilk g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi 2025 sonundaki belirsizli\u011fe benziyor. WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu durum, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flarken petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksinin (OVX: petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na benzetiliyor. Bu da fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcne dair do\u011frudan pozisyon almay\u0131 (sadece y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynamay\u0131) daha pahal\u0131 ve riskli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olursa olsun b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Uzun straddle veya strangle denen stratejiler (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu \u201ccall\u201d hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu \u201cput\u201d sat\u0131n almak) etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olup fiyat\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi ya da anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p fiyat\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki fiziksel arz aksamamas\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenmemeli; tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131 bu hattan ge\u00e7iyor. Bildirilen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7,9 milyon varillik \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir seviye ve 2020\u2019de pandemide talep \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen kesintilerin de \u00fczerinde. Bu temel arz ko\u015fullar\u0131, kesin bir anla\u015fma imzalan\u0131p onaylanmad\u0131k\u00e7a (resmile\u015fmedik\u00e7e) fiyatlar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Siyasi takvim, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan ABD ara se\u00e7imleri, y\u00f6netim i\u00e7in ek bir bask\u0131 unsuru. Benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilir; bu da \u0130ran\u2019la daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme itebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fman\u0131n erken i\u015fareti olarak ABD\u2019li yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndaki ton de\u011fi\u015fimlerini (s\u00f6ylem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini) yak\u0131ndan izlemeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 91,50 dolarda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. ABD-\u0130ran yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme sinyali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc desteklerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintisi dipleri koruyor; oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 straddle\/strangle stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44529\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}