EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 100 pipin (d\u00f6vizde standart \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi; 1 pip genelde 0,0001) \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini uzatarak Sal\u0131 Asya seans\u0131nda da prim yapt\u0131. Sekizinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselen parite, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1765\u20131,1770 band\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonu bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen piyasalar, \u0130ran\u2019la yeni diplomasi ihtimaliyle yeniden riskli varl\u0131klara (hisse senedi gibi getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fcr\u00fcnler) y\u00f6neldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, bir \u201cat\u0131l\u0131m\u201d olmasa da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde anlaml\u0131 ilerleme kaydedildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, Dolar\u2019\u0131 mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n tuttu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f) ba\u011fl\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n su yolunda bir ablukaya (ge\u00e7i\u015fleri k\u0131s\u0131tlama hamlesi) ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve bo\u011faz yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u0130ran sava\u015f gemilerine kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m atma tehdidinde bulundu. \u0130ran ise Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki t\u00fcm limanlar\u0131 hedef alabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131; bu da gerilimi y\u00fcksek tuttu.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) bozulup \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair kayg\u0131lar, Dolar\u2019a destek verirken EUR\/USD\u2019ye talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Yine de son fiyat hareketi, mart sonundaki dipten ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendiyle (genel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n) uyumlu kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Euro, farkl\u0131 nedenlerle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; ana etken Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz mesaj\u0131). Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) Mart 2026\u2019da %2,9\u2019da inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasalar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131) bu y\u0131l en az iki ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed, kendi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6nemi) duraklama sinyali verdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ya\u015fanan sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hat\u0131ras\u0131 nedeniyle, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc ararken opsiyonlarla daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ECB etkisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli vadeye (yak\u0131n tarihte biti\u015f) sahip EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ancak olas\u0131 ani \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off; g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) durumuna kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma veya al\u0131m spreadi (call spread; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 fiyattan ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) kullanmak daha g\u00fcvenli olur. \u00d6zellikle ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ECB yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131, \u015fahin duru\u015fun teyidi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler veya yeni diplomatik gerilimler, alg\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zla Euro aleyhine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu nedenle hem merkez bankas\u0131 mesajlar\u0131 hem de jeopolitik man\u015fetler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/dolar 8 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckseliyor, 1,1770 ile mart zirvesinde! Dolar Fed belirsizli\u011fiyle zay\u0131f, ECB \u015fahinle\u015fmesi euroyu destekliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken opsiyonda temkinli koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}