OCBC stratejistleri Sim Moh Siong ve Christopher Wong, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS) 14 Nisan 2026\u2019da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Buna g\u00f6re MAS\u2019nin, ithal enflasyonu (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke i\u00e7ine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Singapur Dolar\u0131 Nominal Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru (S$NEER: Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n, ticaret yap\u0131lan para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) politika band\u0131n\u0131n \u201ce\u011fimini\u201d (kurun zaman i\u00e7inde hangi h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine\/zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verildi\u011fini belirleyen ayar) art\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentilerinin zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcne kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten analistler, oda\u011f\u0131n MAS\u2019nin hangi politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanaca\u011f\u0131na ve a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n tonuna (\u015fahin ton: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 duru\u015f) \u00e7evrildi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Daha \u015fahin bir ton, S$NEER\u2019i band\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n tutabilir ve ABD dolar\u0131\/singapur dolar\u0131 (USD\/SGD: 1 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7 Singapur dolar\u0131 etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) paritesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden olabilir; bunun, genel dolar hareketinin dengeli kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
MAS daha dengeli bir mesaj verirse, USD\/SGD tepkisinin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Analistler USD\/SGD i\u00e7in teknik seviyeleri de payla\u015f\u0131yor: diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorlanabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,2780, 1,2810 ve 1,2840\/50.<\/p>\n
Ana destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,2710 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bunun net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde sonraki destek 1,2620. Belirtilen diren\u00e7 seviyeleri, Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilme seviyeleri (\u00f6nceki hareketin belirli oranlarda geri al\u0131nmas\u0131na g\u00f6re bulunan teknik seviyeler) olan %38,2 ve %50 ile 21, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalara (son fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131yla trendi izleyen g\u00f6stergeler) dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Temel senaryomuz, MAS\u2019nin bug\u00fcn S$NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fimini art\u0131rarak politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu ad\u0131m, artan ithal enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefliyor. Son veriler, ilk \u00e7eyrekte ithalat fiyat endeksinin %2,5 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu nedenle USD\/SGD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa zaten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, ilk fiyat hareketi a\u00e7\u0131klama metninin tonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Bir haftal\u0131k vadeli USD\/SGD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) %8,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu, beklentinin fiyatlara girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu y\u00fczden, \u015fahin bir mesaj olmadan sadece \u201ce\u011fim art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket yaratmayabilir.<\/p>\n
MAS, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u015fahin bir a\u00e7\u0131klama verirse, USD\/SGD\u2019de 1,2710 deste\u011finin test edilmesi beklenebilir. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,2620\u2019ye do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/SGD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu, MAS\u2019nin Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin verme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klama daha dengeli olur ve beklentileri sadece kar\u015f\u0131lar ise USD\/SGD\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki veya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir rahatlama y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu senaryoda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 1,2780\u20131,2810 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu strateji, hem kurun y\u00fckselmemesinden hem de karar sonras\u0131 opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda genel yakla\u015f\u0131m, USD\/SGD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmal\u0131. Politika y\u00f6n\u00fc, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Singapur dolar\u0131. 1,2840\/50 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareketleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon a\u00e7mak veya mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
MAS\u2019ta kritik g\u00fcn: OCBC, 14 Nisan\u2019da S$NEER band\u0131 e\u011fiminin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015fahin tonla USD\/SGD\u2019de 1,2710 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,2620\u2019ye gerilemeyi bekliyor; diren\u00e7 1,2780\u20131,2840.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}