USD\/JPY Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geni\u015f bir bantta hareket etti; yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,86\u2019ya y\u00fckseldikten sonra 159,35 civar\u0131na geriledi ve neredeyse yatay kald\u0131. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 piplik (d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) bir aral\u0131kta, 158,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Odak, 27\u201328 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (BoJ) \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Japonya ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat sonundan beri fiilen kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 enerji maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 itti.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artarken ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; dikkat \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilim ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm umudundayd\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Mart ay\u0131 \u00dcFE\u2019nin (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim) ayl\u0131k %1,2 (\u015eubat %0,7) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 (\u015eubat %3,4) gelmesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca Fed yetkilileri Goolsbee, Barr, Barkin, Collins ve Paulson konu\u015facak.<\/p>\n
Be\u015f dakikal\u0131k grafikte fiyat g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 159,73\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda. Stokastik RSI (momentum g\u00f6stergesi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesini \u00f6l\u00e7er) 90\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelerden 30\u2019lar\u0131n sonuna geriliyor. D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte fiyat 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 158,51 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken Stokastik RSI 74,46.<\/p>\n
Yen, Japonya ekonomisi, BoJ politikas\u0131, ABD ile faiz getirisi fark\u0131 ve risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndan etkileniyor. 2013\u20132024 d\u00f6nemindeki \u00e7ok gev\u015fek politika (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc parasal destek) yeni zay\u0131flatt\u0131; 2024\u2019te bu duru\u015fun terk edilmesi ABD getirileriyle fark\u0131 daraltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 160,00 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 artan enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle BoJ\u2019un o ay faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi y\u00fcksekti. Bu da paritede bir \u201ctavan\u201d olu\u015fturmu\u015f, piyasa daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen beklentisini fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
160,00 seviyesi 2025\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu, Japon yetkililerin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini (yen almak i\u00e7in piyasaya girip dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itme) tetikledi. Ancak hareket kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ana etken olan ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 \u00e7ok geni\u015f kald\u0131. BoJ ad\u0131mlar\u0131, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmekten \u00e7ok yava\u015flatmak olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcne, 14 Nisan 2026\u2019ya gelindi\u011finde parite 165 civar\u0131nda ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yeni ba\u015flayan yava\u015f bir faiz indirim s\u00fcrecinde; politika faizi %4,75. BoJ ise \u00e7ok yava\u015f ilerleyerek faizini yaln\u0131zca %0,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu fark, ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (elde tutmay\u0131) yen ta\u015f\u0131maya g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ana y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da eski zirvelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani ve sert geri \u00e7ekilme riskinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu nedenle oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) odaklanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin yen al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131) veya USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak olas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz m\u00fcdahalede yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Opsiyonlar, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle ani yen de\u011ferlenmesine pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) h\u00e2l\u00e2 bask\u0131n strateji. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1 iken Japonya\u2019daki muadili %0,9; bu da dolar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (futures: belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) USD uzun\/JPY k\u0131sa pozisyon kurabilir ve pozitif swap\u0131 (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi) toplayabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 158-160 band\u0131nda oyalan\u0131rken g\u00f6zler BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda: enerji \u015foku ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi yen lehine. Ancak carry trade g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahale riski ve opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44522\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}