OCBC stratejistleri Sim Moh Siong ve Christopher Wong, Asya d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n haftaya zay\u0131f ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bunu yeniden artan jeopolitik belirsizlik, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, zay\u0131flayan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) ve ABD dolar\u0131na talep ile ili\u015fkilendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek beta (piyasa dalgalan\u0131nca daha sert hareket eden) ve net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerinin daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu belirtiyor; KRW, THB, PHP ve INR\u2019yi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beta (daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dalgalanan) para birimleri olan CNH (offshore yuan; \u00c7in yuan\u0131n\u0131n yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasadaki versiyonu) ve SGD\u2019nin daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fin yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyorlar. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n \u201cen k\u00f6t\u00fc kesinti\u201d senaryosunu fiyatlama ihtimalini azaltabilir; bu da d\u00fczensiz bir sat\u0131\u015ftan ziyade daha yumu\u015fak bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma uzar ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert s\u0131\u00e7ramak yerine y\u00fcksek seviyede kal\u0131rsa, \u201cticaret hadleri\u201d (\u00fclkenin ihra\u00e7 etti\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithal etti\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fc) farklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. EUR yerine AUD\u2019yi tercih ediyor, KRW, INR, THB ve PHP dahil petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Asya para birimlerinde savunmada kal\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sepet g\u00f6stergesi) 106,5\u2019in \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test etmesi sonras\u0131, bir\u00e7ok Asya para biriminde zay\u0131f bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 bekleniyor. Jeopolitik belirsizlik dolar i\u00e7in \u201csavunma ama\u00e7l\u0131\u201d talep yarat\u0131yor. Bunu, 2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen modele benzetiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek beta ve net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimleri (\u00f6r. Kore wonu, Tayland baht\u0131) belirgin \u015fekilde geride kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, o d\u00f6nemde wonun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.380\u2019in \u00fczerine zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge; riski dengelemek) i\u00e7in KRW, THB ve INR gibi para birimlerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, emtia (maden, enerji gibi ham maddeler) fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda destek bulan Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi enerji ve emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerini, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne k\u0131yasla daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en ay beklentiyi a\u015farak 12 milyar Avustralya dolar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr ihracat\u0131 etkili oldu. Bu da AUD\/EUR taraf\u0131nda \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyet ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri hedefleyen iki opsiyonlu strateji) gibi stratejilere bak\u0131labilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda \u00c7in yuan\u0131 ve Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Singapur\u2019un g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00f6netilen kur rejimi (kurun tamamen serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, otoritenin y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi sistem) bu t\u00fcr d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u015fu a\u015famada bu para birimlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon (short; de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynama) aramad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz s\u0131\u00e7ramaktan \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek seviyede \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kalmas\u0131, ana deniz ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen sigorta maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131yla uyumlu. Bu, panikten ziyade kademeli bir bask\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; k\u0131sa vadeli riskli hamleler yerine daha uzun vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 (vadesi daha ileri olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret, bu savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar haftaya tedirgin giriyor: Jeopolitik risk ve 95$ \u00fczeri Brent, dolara talebi art\u0131r\u0131p Asya kurlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. KRW-THB-PHP-INR k\u0131r\u0131lgan, CNH-SGD dayan\u0131kl\u0131; AUD\/EUR \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44517\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}