DBS Group Research ekonomisti Philip Wee, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS, \u00fclkenin merkez bankas\u0131) daha \u00f6nceki gev\u015femeyi geri \u00e7evirerek Singapur dolar\u0131 Nominal Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru (SGD NEER: Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n paralar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama de\u011feri) politika band\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmesini bekliyor. Wee, enerji kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok nedeniyle MAS\u2019\u0131n enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 seviyesinin band\u0131n orta noktas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 J.D. Vance ile \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf aras\u0131nda pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan \u0130slamabad Zirvesi\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor. Rapora g\u00f6re, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine dair beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bu hareketi besliyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Gan Kim Yong, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u201cdar bo\u011faz\u0131\u201d (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) 1973 petrol ambargosundan (petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc olarak niteledi. Bu geli\u015fmenin normal bir fiyat hareketi de\u011fil, \u201carz \u015foku\u201d (arz\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle maliyetlerin y\u00fckselmesi) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, MAS\u2019\u0131n Ocak ve Nisan 2025\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki \u201ce\u011fim indirimi\u201dni (NEER band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fimi: band\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde ne h\u0131zla yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirilece\u011fini g\u00f6steren ayar) geri alaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Kurumun \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahminini (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: oynak kalemler olan g\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) %1\u20132 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan %1,5\u20132,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltece\u011fi ve man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI-All Items: t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc de yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
SGD NEER\u2019in band\u0131n orta noktas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,8 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca USD\/SGD\u2019nin (ABD dolar\u0131\/Singapur dolar\u0131 kuru) h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel ABD dolar\u0131 e\u011filimini izledi\u011fi ekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ad\u0131m, 2025\u2019in Ocak ve Nisan aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen gev\u015femenin do\u011frudan tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olur. Mart 2026 verileri, Singapur\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve MAS\u2019\u0131n eski tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ablukaya ili\u015fkin karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle, MAS\u2019\u0131n bir sonraki toplant\u0131da enflasyon tahminlerini resmen y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131yla tetiklenen enerji \u015fokunda MAS enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in politikay\u0131 art arda sertle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz durumunu 1973\u2019ten beri en k\u00f6t\u00fc d\u00f6nem olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelemesi, benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir tepkinin gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n yeniden merkezlenmesine (band\u0131n orta noktas\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131) veya band\u0131n e\u011fiminin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na (paran\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin veren ayar) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri kur\/faiz\/emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Singapur dolar\u0131na pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 SGD, politika band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst yar\u0131s\u0131nda ve orta noktan\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,8 \u00fczerinde seyrediyor; bu da resmi bir hamle gelmeden \u00f6nce bile temel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; DXY endeksi (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 108\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, SGD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklense bile USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. USD\/SGD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7ok kademeli bir gerileme \u015feklinde olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmayan Euro veya Yen gibi para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 SGD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ana pariteye odaklananlar i\u00e7in ise, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck primli ve \u201czarar ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d seviyelerdeki USD\/SGD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money call: kur mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fersiz kalan opsiyon) y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, SGD\u2019de beklenen g\u00fc\u00e7ten faydalan\u0131rken k\u00fcresel dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131 etkisini de dikkate al\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foku MAS\u2019\u0131 rota de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye zorluyor: DBS\u2019ye g\u00f6re Singapur, iki e\u011fim indirimini geri al\u0131p enflasyon tahminlerini y\u00fckseltecek. SGD NEER g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; USD\/SGD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kademeli kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44516\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}