Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken ve enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 artarken yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 geriledi. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 4.750 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.734 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. <\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc \u015fekilde\u201d anla\u015fma yapmak istedi\u011fini ve \u201cn\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmamay\u0131 kabul etmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin \u201cn\u00fckleer malzemeyi geri alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti. <\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan eksiye d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve %0,09 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,61\u2019e indi. ABD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 10:00 EDT\u2019de (ABD Do\u011fu Saati) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir abluka ba\u015flatarak \u0130ran bayrakl\u0131 gemileri ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan gemileri durdurmay\u0131 hedefledi. <\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Mevcut Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda 3,98 milyona geriledi; ayl\u0131k bazda %3,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle son dokuz ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Piyasalar bunun yerine ABD-\u0130ran geli\u015fmelerine odakland\u0131. <\/p>\n
San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly, faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine) daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu, enflasyon y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 y\u00fckseldi; \u015eubat\u2019a g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 puan daha y\u00fcksek. <\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisi %4,30 oldu; 1,5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. (Baz puan: %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim.) Yakla\u015fan veriler aras\u0131nda ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc veri; 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama) ve Mart \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) bulunuyor. \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 gelmesi bekleniyor. <\/p>\n
Teknik olarak alt\u0131n 4.639 dolardan toparland\u0131. 20 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ler (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: son X g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.658\u20134.668 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.750; ard\u0131ndan 4.800, 4.857 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.897. Destek 4.700; ard\u0131ndan 4.668\/58 ve 4.600. <\/p>\n
Mevcut tarih olan 14 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla alt\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019la daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski ile enflasyon nedeniyle faiz indirimine isteksiz bir Fed aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki yeni ABD ablukas\u0131 fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) ana belirleyicisi olacak. Bu nedenle, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle\/strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: fiyat yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareket ederse kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir). <\/p>\n
Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve Fed\u2019in faizi sabit b\u0131rakma gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Mart T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla \u00dcFE beklentisi (%4,6) kritik olacak. Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor; bu nedenle maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla kurulan al\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) tercih edilebilir. <\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f bu enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. \u00d6te yandan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali de izlenmeli. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u0130ran anla\u015fma istiyor\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, alt\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in haber riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. <\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 20 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalar\u0131n kesi\u015fti\u011fi 4.660 dolar \u00e7evresi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek zemini olu\u015fturuyor. Bu seviyeye yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: put sat\u0131p olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rma) yapanlar\u0131n prim (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplamas\u0131 olas\u0131. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenir; t\u0131pk\u0131 GVZ\u2019nin (Gold Volatility Index: alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 2024\u2019teki jeopolitik s\u00fcre\u00e7te 18\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 gibi. <\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalar \u00dcFE verisine ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki geli\u015fmelere odaklanacak. Beklenenden y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi alt\u0131n\u0131 4.660 deste\u011fini test etmeye itebilir; ablukada t\u0131rmanma ise fiyat\u0131 4.800 direncinin \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Mevcut ortam tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyonu desteklemiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 ve \u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131yor. XAU\/USD 4.750\u2019den d\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc, 4.734\u2019te. DXY gerilerken Fed temkinli; 4.660 destek, 4.800 diren\u00e7 izlemede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44515\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}