Societe Generale, Kolombiya\u2019n\u0131n 31 May\u0131s 2026\u2019daki cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini de\u011ferlendirdi. Anketler, se\u00e7imin ikinci tura kalmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu; ikinci tur e\u015fle\u015fmelerinde birle\u015fik sa\u011f\u0131n, Tarihi Pakt (sol ittifak) aday\u0131 Gustavo Cepeda\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Notta, Paloma Valencia ve De la Espriella\u2019n\u0131n ikinci tur senaryolar\u0131nda Cepeda\u2019dan daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Sa\u011fdaki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmenin (oylar\u0131n \u00e7ok say\u0131da adaya da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131) ise temel risk oldu\u011fu ekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Valencia\u2019ya deste\u011fin, karars\u0131z se\u00e7menin onun etraf\u0131nda toparlanmas\u0131yla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Cepeda\u2019n\u0131n anket deste\u011finin ise \u201ctavana yak\u0131n\u201d oldu\u011fu, yani oy oran\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fckselmesinin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130htimallerin Valencia\u2019y\u0131 az farkla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak anketlerin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin CNE\u2019nin (Consejo Nacional Electoral: Ulusal Se\u00e7im Konseyi) y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir soru\u015fturma nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Not ayr\u0131ca kurumsal ve mali bask\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor: Merkez bankas\u0131yla ilgili gerilimler ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 mali alan (b\u00fct\u00e7ede yeni harcama\/te\u015fvik i\u00e7in az yer kalmas\u0131) gibi unsurlar\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n Kolombiya varl\u0131klar\u0131na (\u00fclkenin para birimi, hisse senetleri, tahvilleri) temkinli yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
31 May\u0131s se\u00e7imi yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Kolombiya varl\u0131klar\u0131nda belirgin belirsizli\u011fin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Anketler ikinci turu i\u015faret ediyor; piyasalar\u0131n daha \u201cpiyasa dostu\u201d g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc birle\u015fik sa\u011f aday\u0131n hafif \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olsa da sonu\u00e7 net de\u011fil. Bu gerilim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 haftada t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in hem f\u0131rsat hem risk yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Artan siyasi risk, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck volatiliteyi\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fckseltti; \u00f6zellikle USD\/COP kur paritesine (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kolombiya pesosu) ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlarda. Peso bu \u00e7eyrekte %3\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kaybederek g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla 4.100 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha fazla istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar USD\/COP \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak, Tarihi Pakt aday\u0131n\u0131n ivme kazanmas\u0131 halinde pesonun daha sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, COLCAP endeksi Latin Amerika\u2019da zay\u0131f kalanlar aras\u0131nda; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 d\u00fc\u015ferken Brezilya Bovespa endeksi art\u0131da. Bu, kazanan kim olursa olsun olas\u0131 mali ve kurumsal bask\u0131lara dair kayg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Kolombiya borsas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir ETF\u2019de (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, se\u00e7im sonucu kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 etkili bir korunma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
2022 se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00f6nemde, Kolombiya\u2019n\u0131n 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS\u2019lerinin (Credit Default Swap: temerr\u00fct riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011finde s\u00f6zle\u015fme) risk g\u00f6stergesi olarak belirgin \u015fekilde geni\u015fledi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Benzer bir e\u011filimin \u015fimdi de olu\u015ftu\u011fu, \u201cspread\u201din (risk primi fark\u0131) y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 25 baz puan artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n stres olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (geri \u00f6deme zorlu\u011fu\/temerr\u00fct riski) daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyreden enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi ve ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu ortam, piyasalar\u0131n siyasi haberlere hassasiyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor; anketlerdeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimler bile orant\u0131s\u0131z fiyat hareketlerini tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle tek y\u00f6ne bahis niteli\u011findeki basit pozisyonlar\u0131n riskli oldu\u011fu, \u201clong straddle\u201d gibi (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen) fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejilerin daha temkinli olabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kolombiya\u2019da 31 May\u0131s 2026 se\u00e7imi yakla\u015f\u0131rken piyasa alarmda: SocGen, ikinci tur olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve birle\u015fik sa\u011f\u0131n Cepeda\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyor. USD\/COP volatilitesi, CDS spreadi ve opsiyonlarla korunma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44512\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}