ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Oval Ofis\u2019te d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in \u0130ran dosyas\u0131ndaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6vd\u00fc ve \u201c\u0130ran konusunda \u00e7ok iyi i\u015f \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u201d dedi. Trump, ABD\u2019nin bu sabah \u0130ran konusunda \u201cdo\u011fru ki\u015filer\u201d taraf\u0131ndan arand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n \u201canla\u015fma istedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmamay\u0131 kabul etmedi\u011fini belirterek ABD\u2019nin \u201cn\u00fckleer malzemeyi geri alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping\u2019in (Xi) durumun bitmesini istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran konusu bitti\u011finde ABD\u2019nin K\u00fcba\u2019ya u\u011frayabilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.730 dolardan 4.741 dolara y\u00fckseldikten sonra 4.734 dolara geri \u00e7ekildi. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (ABD\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket hisselerini izleyen endeks) \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve 47.926 seviyesinde yatay kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) %0,09 d\u00fc\u015ferek 98,61\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
Abluka ile olas\u0131 anla\u015fma mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7eli\u015fmesi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert dalgalanma beklenmeli. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d), ge\u00e7en hafta %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselerek 28 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 VIX\u2019te al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu de\u011ferlendirilebilir; al\u0131m opsiyonu, fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan bir t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcr ve bu t\u00fcr sert hareketlerde de\u011ferlenebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131 enerji piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte biri bu ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7iyor. Arz \u015foku (piyasaya gelen petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 WTI ve Brent gibi ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u201cVadeli i\u015flem\u201d, ileri bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesidir; uzun vadeli opsiyon ise daha uzun s\u00fcreli koruma veya pozisyon alma sa\u011flar. Ablukan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi Brent petrol\u00fc 2025\u2019te k\u0131sa s\u00fcre g\u00f6r\u00fclen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir \u00f6rnek 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %5\u2019i ge\u00e7ici olarak devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f, petrol bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut tablo daha a\u011f\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanma fiyatlar \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve daha kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilir. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, piyasan\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde ek y\u00fck yarat\u0131r ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Dow\u2019un yatay kalmas\u0131, ablukay\u0131 de\u011fil anla\u015fma ihtimalini fiyatlayan iyimser bir okuma olabilir. Piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan pozisyon) amac\u0131yla S&P 500 ve Dow Jones \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; sat\u0131m opsiyonu, fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Ablukadan en h\u0131zl\u0131 olumsuz etkilenecek alanlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve lojistik \u015firketleri, \u00f6zellikle petrol tanker operat\u00f6rleri gelir. Bu tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisselerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Sigorta primlerinin y\u00fckselmesi ve daha uzun alternatif rotalara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmas\u0131 maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131r, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan bask\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n bu ortamda temel g\u00fcvenli liman (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; ilk y\u00fckseli\u015f de bu krize duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2025\u2019te 800 tonun \u00fczerinde al\u0131m yaparak fiyata destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Jeopolitik risklerin artmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon art\u0131rmak veya alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2019tan \u0130ran mesaj\u0131: \u201cAnla\u015fma istiyorlar\u201d ama H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasalar temkinli; alt\u0131n dalgaland\u0131, VIX y\u00fckseldi. Petrol arz \u015foku riskiyle opsiyonlu korunma ve pozisyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44509\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}