Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015fluk (gap) yapt\u0131ktan sonra toparland\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.632 dolarl\u0131k dipten sonra 4.717 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin artmas\u0131yla piyasada \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. <\/p>\n
\u0130slamabad\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes beklentisine ba\u011fl\u0131 iyimserlik s\u00f6n\u00fcnce sonu\u00e7suz bitti. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 i\u00e7in deniz ablukas\u0131 talimat\u0131 verdi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), pazartesi 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) itibar\u0131yla Arap K\u00f6rfezi ve Umman K\u00f6rfezi \u00fczerinden \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ya da \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemilerin kapsamda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015fan askeri gemilerin ate\u015fkes ihlali say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilebilece\u011fini bildirdi. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc) yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 dolar civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 art\u0131da. <\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu durum, ABD\u2019de faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 (USD) ve Hazine tahvili getirilerini (tahvil faizi) destekledi. Mart ay\u0131 man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3\u2019ten %0,9\u2019a, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.687,17 dolar seviyesinin ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.185,69 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde; ancak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.899,38 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. RSI (14) (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 47 civar\u0131nda, ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 27. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 5.000\u20135.200 dolar, destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma alan\u0131) 4.600\u20134.500 dolar band\u0131nda. <\/p>\n
Bu tablo, alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlu bir zemini i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik risk alt\u0131n\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak destekleyebilir; ancak enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fckseltebilir. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi son d\u00f6nemde yeniden %4,5 civar\u0131na t\u0131rmand\u0131. Bu, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131rarak y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. <\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ortamda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar) oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklanmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu nedenle straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) gibi \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejileri cazip olabilir. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. <\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla riski s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 bulunuyor. 4.800 dolar civar\u0131ndaki eski diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen call spread (al\u0131m opsiyonu fark\u0131: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f senaryosuna daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma yolu olabilir. \u00d6te yandan 4.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/pozisyon) almak, gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 durumuna kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u201chedge\u201d (korunma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi alt\u0131n\u0131 toparlatsa da ralli neden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131? XAU\/USD gap sonras\u0131 4.717$\u2019a d\u00f6nd\u00fc; petrol 96$, enflasyon %3,3. Faiz\/getiri bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken opsiyonda oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}