USD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en deniz trafi\u011fini fiilen durdurmaya y\u00f6neldi\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan %0,27 y\u00fckseldi. Parite, jeopolitik gerilim artarken yatay (n\u00f6tr) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) al\u0131mlar\u0131yla yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Ancak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerjiye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa \u00fclkeyi k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyebilece\u011fi) endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar destek buldu; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi planlar\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilir. ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri (tahvillerin y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri oran\u0131) ve hisse piyasalar\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 159,74 seviyesindeydi ve 20 d\u00f6nem ile 100 d\u00f6nem SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama; belirli say\u0131daki kapan\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 159,09 ve 159,26 seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. 159,73 ve 159,57 seviyeleri yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131 olu\u015ftururken, RSI\u2019\u0131n (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 62 civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m (\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00fczeltme riski) sinyali \u00fcretmedi.<\/p>\n
Destek 159,73\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 159,57 ve 159,51\u2019de bulunuyor; son al\u0131mlar ve hareketli ortalamalar deste\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Diren\u00e7 159,86\u2019da; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi uzatabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan trafi\u011fi fiilen durdurmas\u0131, USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde hem g\u00fcvenli liman talebi hem de enerji fiyat\u0131 korkusu kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve z\u0131t bask\u0131lar yarat\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7it, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer; bu nedenle piyasada sert dalgalanma (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede keskin ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) beklentisi y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo daha zor; \u00fclke ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %95\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor ve bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan geliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama, Japon ekonomisini do\u011frudan zorlar ve yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle jeopolitik risk artsa da yen, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmekte zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, petrol\u00fcn pahalanmas\u0131 enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fi Fed faiz indirimlerini \u00f6teleyebilir. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131 (getiri fark\u0131), USD\/JPY\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde temel bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2024 bahar\u0131ndaki sert m\u00fcdahaleleri (kur m\u00fcdahalesi; piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla y\u00f6n verme) sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani geri \u00e7ekilmeler unutulmamal\u0131. Resm\u00ee sat\u0131\u015f riski, paritede do\u011frudan \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131madaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk. 160 \u00fczerindeki hareketler, merkez bankas\u0131\/otorite ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u015fareti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Bu ani ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak daha temkinli bir strateji olabilir. Call opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir; b\u00f6ylece parite y\u00fckselirse yukar\u0131 potansiyelden yararlan\u0131l\u0131rken, m\u00fcdahale olursa azami zarar \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, spot piyasadaki (anl\u0131k al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) veya vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki (gelecek tarihli kontrat) s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarar riskini almadan y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korumay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in strangle veya straddle almak, artan dalgalanmaya do\u011frudan oynamakt\u0131r. Straddle, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m; strangle ise farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r. Bu stratejiler, 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da m\u00fcdahaleyle h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekette kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir; yani sonucun ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etme zorunlulu\u011funu azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159,70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: G\u00fcvenli liman yen dolar\u0131 frenlerken petrol \u015foku Fed indirimlerini \u00f6teleyebilir. 160 yak\u0131n\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}