WTI tipi ham petrol Pazartesi varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,70 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %5,90 y\u00fckseldi. Fiyat 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en haftaki 106 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki zirvenin alt\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Hareket, \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimin yeniden artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Pazartesi 10:00 (ABD Do\u011fu Saati) itibar\u0131yla \u0130ran limanlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilerin ABD ordusu taraf\u0131ndan engellenmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n (piyasaya sunulan petrol miktar\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131r. Standard Chartered, rotan\u0131n \u015eubat sonundan bu yana fiilen kapal\u0131 oldu\u011funu bildirdi; tanker trafi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015ferken K\u00f6rfez ham petrol ihracat\u0131 \u015eubat-Mart aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %43 azald\u0131. Bu da g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 11 milyon varilin fiilen devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hafta sonu \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi. \u0130ki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Suudi Arabistan, Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131nda tam kapasiteyi yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnde 7 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu hat, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz \u00fczerinden ihracat imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla 95,70 dolara s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bu ablukay\u0131 (ge\u00e7i\u015fi engelleme) ne kadar ciddiye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak 100 dolar\u0131n geri al\u0131namamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ihtimalini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 arz \u015foku ile tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklentisi aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc istikrarl\u0131 bir trend yerine iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
ABD ablukay\u0131 uygular ve ate\u015fkes bozulursa, fiyatlar\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki 106 dolar zirvesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rama riski var. 2019\u2019da ayn\u0131 b\u00f6lgede tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00fcnde fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Son EIA verileri, k\u00fcresel yedek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin (piyasaya h\u0131zl\u0131ca eklenebilecek ek \u00fcretim) yaln\u0131zca g\u00fcnde 2,1 milyon varil ile zaten s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu y\u00fczden g\u00fcnde 11 milyon varillik kesinti tehdidine piyasa \u00e7ok daha hassas.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, m\u00fczakerelerde bir ilerleme olursa fiyatlar y\u00fckseldi\u011fi h\u0131zla 90 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 hatt\u0131yla g\u00fcnde 7 milyon varile kadar sevkiyat\u0131 farkl\u0131 rotaya y\u00f6nlendirebilmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn tamamen kapanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli ama k\u0131smi bir tampon sa\u011flar. Bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimali, koruma olmadan net uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 riskli k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle en do\u011frudan yakla\u015f\u0131m, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kendisine i\u015flem yapmak. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: ham petrol se\u00e7eneklerinde\/opsiyonlar\u0131nda beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 55\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015fken, belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Long straddle veya strangle gibi stratejiler (iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri) jeopolitik riskin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir piyasaya daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 95,70 dolara %5,9 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de fiili kapanma ve ABD\u2019nin ablukas\u0131 arz \u015foku riski yarat\u0131yor; 100 dolar a\u015f\u0131lamazken OVX 55, oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44500\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}